Public Policy Polling has released a new poll in the state of Virginia including native Virgil Goode, nominee of the Constitution Party. Goode garnered 9%, an increase since PPP’s previous poll back in May.
If Virgil Goode gets on the ballot in Virginia it could spell trouble for Romney. He pulls 9% of the vote, getting most of his support from Republicans and conservative leaning independents. With him in the picture Obama’s lead pushes out to 14 points at 49-35. It’s highly unlikely Goode would get 9% in the end but he certainly could make a difference if Virginia ended up being more like a 1-2 pt race. Goode staying off the ballot may be vital to Romney’s prospects there.
Read the PPP Summary: Obama holding serve in the upper South
Read the full PPP Release: Obama leads in both VA and NC
Virgil Goode is a former Congressman from Virginia’s 5th district. He is one of the only members of the House to serve as a Democrat, Independent, and Republican. Virgil Goode is running for President as the Constitution Party nominee.
Yes, see above.
In 2008, the Independent Green Party had ballot access and named Chuck Baldwin as their nominee. Is that party making a run to be on the ballot this year in Virginia?
2% write-in, with others “on the ballot” is pretty significant. That translates to a lot more than 2% if you have equal standing on the ballot; same with polls.
A lack of 2% of the sample of likely voters who know you without asking, is a solid indication of a lack of support. Same goes for party identification. From a statistical sampling analysis it is very reasonable.
In the states where Johnson is getting significant support and the polling firms are ignoring it we have a reasonable complain against bias. In the states we lack such support we don’t. We need to be better at increasing name recognition just like any other start-up enterprise.
2% volunteered support is not easy to get when you are given a list of other choices.
I am under the impression that PPP includes candidates who receive more then ~2% volunteered support. So the lack of Johnson in some of their polls indicates that in those states he is below the noise level.
LP will make it. Not in question at all.
I don’t remember the last time the LP did NOT make the ballot in VA.
Whether the Greens, and the Libertarians make the ballot in Virginia is very much in question.
I have to agree with #2.
I would like to see another poll include him in VA besides ppp… that way we will have something to compare to.
Let’s not criticize PPP too much–they’re one of the only firms even including third parties consistently.
I believe the 9% number for Goode is roughly accurate, though maybe inflated by 1-3 percentage points.
Currently in NC only Obama, Romney, and Johnson will be printed on the ballot. To be a write in you must get 500 signatures. Virgil Goode has done that in NC and so far no one else has turned in any signatures . They have until july 24th. So in NC you will likely only be able to vote for 4 people.
I was just about to say that. It annoys me that they fail to include two candidates who are on the ballot in VA, but they still include Goode, who is still trying to get on the ballot.
What is also annoying is why they didn’t point any third option in the North Carolina poll. They did these at the same time, and in NC there is only two options, Obama and Romney.
I appreciate PPP for including Goode in VA, but they shouldn’t be so selective when putting names on their polls. They should put everyone who is on the ballot. That should be the rule.
This poll would be vastly more meaningful if it included Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.