From Richard Winger at Ballot Access News:
Based on preliminary election returns, it appears the percentage of the vote in the November 2014 election for independent and minor party candidates, for the office at the top of the ballot, was 4.4%.
By contrast, in 2010 it was 5.4%; in 2006 it was 5.0%; in 2002, it was 5.3%; in 1998, it was 4.9%; in 1994, it was 4.5%; in 1990, it was 4.6%; in 1986 it was 3.6%. But in 1982, it was only 1.8%, and in 1978 and 1974 it was only 2.4%.
The chief reason the 2014 “other” vote for the office at the top of the ballot was lower than in recent past midterm elections is that California and Washington did not let voters cast an “other” vote in November 2014. California and Washington together comprise one-eighth of the nation.
In November 2010, California voters cast 539,645 votes for “other” candidates for Governor, but in November 2014, there were zero such votes, due to California’s having switched to the top-two system starting in 2011. Naturally, with such a drastic change in California, the national percentage for “other” was significantly lowered.
A note on methodology: These calculations exclude scattering write-in votes, and exclude votes for “None of these candidates” in Nevada. These calculations include votes cast on minor party lines for the top office to be “other” votes, even if the particular minor party cross-endorsed a major party nominee.
Top office on the ballot means Governor, for states that elect Governors in midterm years. For those that don’t, it means U.S. Senate. For the handful of states each year in which neither Governor nor U.S. Senate is up, it means the office actually at the top of the ballot.
FYI, the CP office-holder list used to be a lot bigger then it is now.
“it’s the “bottom” of the ballot which I think counts more – where the government closest to the people can see policy in action. Voters can look up the ballot when they’re comfortable with ideology in action in their neighborhoods. It’ll be harder to track down, but third parties/independents running for town council, school board, etc. may give more encouragement to those of us advocating alternative political parties.”
AGREED.
“The Constitution Party scored well in 3 candidate elections: in AK, the CP candidate rec’d 29%; NM County Sheriff – 15%; NV State Assembly – 12%; MO, State Representative 29%; MN – City Council – 29%; South Dakota County Soil and Water District 27% (2nd place); LA Eunice Police Chief – 43% (top vote getter) now in a run off with second place candidate who rec’d 26%; also in LA – Webster Parish School Board – CPer elected for 5th term; There are many other CP candidates who scored well in 3 way contests, and others who earned 15-20-30% in two way races.”
You forgot the NV State Assembly race in Dist. 12- your candidate got 39.51% of the vote there in a two-way race, which was pretty good.
However the fact is you lost a elected office-holder in the same state, as well as got knocked off the ballot in Ohio and South Dakota, and also failed to meet the ballot access threshold in Tennessee and even Alaska- where your gubernatorial candidate didn’t get that 3% they needed to stay on the ballot.
All in all, the CP didn’t do so well this election year and if the same happens to you guys in 2016, then the CP will be in even more serious trouble.
CPers already in office:
AK – Pam Goode, Deltana Community Corporation Board Delta Junction
IL – Phil Collins, Libertyville Township Trustee Lake County
MI – Rich Ryskamp Board of Directors, Grand Rapids Community College
OR – Mary Starrett, Yamhill County Commissioner
PA – Bob Goodrich, Osceola Township Supervisor
PA – James N. Clymer, Judge of Elections, Manor Township
UT – Bryce Hamilton Duchesne City Council
UT – Steven W. Johnson, Enoch City Council
WA – A.J. Burton, Medical Lake City Council
it’s the “bottom” of the ballot which I think counts more – where the government closest to the people can see policy in action. Voters can look up the ballot when they’re comfortable with ideology in action in their neighborhoods. It’ll be harder to track down, but third parties/independents running for town council, school board, etc. may give more encouragement to those of us advocating alternative political parties.
The Constitution Party scored well in 3 candidate elections: in AK, the CP candidate rec’d 29%; NM County Sheriff – 15%; NV State Assembly – 12%; MO, State Representative 29%; MN – City Council – 29%; South Dakota County Soil and Water District 27% (2nd place); LA Eunice Police Chief – 43% (top vote getter) now in a run off with second place candidate who rec’d 26%; also in LA – Webster Parish School Board – CPer elected for 5th term; There are many other CP candidates who scored well in 3 way contests, and others who earned 15-20-30% in two way races.
It’s not really much of a sign at all. When eliminating top two states we did not do worse than normal.
That is really not a good sign. I wish someone could run a grassroots and populist Independent campaign that people would respond to…
I think Richard said that in the article.
I’m not doing the math right now. But, it looks to me that this year would be in line with previous years if CA and WA are excluded.
AND… how about a comparison of 2014 with other years MINUS CA and WA? What would that look like?
Before giving explanations for changes, it is helpful to check the standard deviation. Since it’s not provided, I have no idea if anything has changed, or if we’re seeing random fluctuation.