Image source: Realclearpolitics.com (edited to show only the Libertarian and Green Parties, and only from 1 June 2016 to 31 August 2016. NOTE: Real Clear Politics is using a different set of polling data than that which will be used by the Commission on Presidential Debates. The Real Clear Politics high for Johnson was 8.9 on 21 August. His polling average by their methodology indicates a drop of 1.3 points (15 percent) in the past 10 days.)
An article by Matt Welsh, published by Reason Magazine yesterday is titled “First Relevant Poll in Nearly a Month Is Very Bad News for Gary Johnson’s Debate Prospects: Fox News has the Libertarian at 9%, making his national average in the polls that matter 9.2% with two-plus weeks before the 15% cutoff.”
The REASON MAGAZINE article reports:
” . . . the results are terrible for Gary Johnson’s debate prospects: 41 percent for Hillary Clinton, 39 percent for Donald Trump, 9 for Johnson, and 4 for Green Party nominee Jill Stein. If the debate commission were making its calculations today, Johnson would be at 9.2 percent, nowhere remotely close to inclusion.
“The news for Johnson is, if anything, worse than that.
“Up until now, Fox News hadn’t included Stein in the polls, and Gary Johnson had averaged exactly 11 percent. In the absence of any broadly observed Libertarian decline in national surveys, that suggests a possible two-point Stein Effect . . .”
The full article can be read HERE.