A new poll put out by Public Policy Polling, widely respected for its accuracy, has placed Gary Johnson at 6%. This article has some very biased commentary.
I know what you’re thinking: The damned libertarians are going to blow it by pulling a Nader on Romney. Is that what the data says, though? That 11 percent among indies does fit with a “disaffected Paul fans ready to go third party” narrative, but look closely at the first table. The only group among which Johnson pulls double digits is … “very liberal” voters, who I assume prefer him to O either because they’re disgruntled that Obama didn’t deliver single-payer yet or whatever and are looking for a protest vote or because they really, really like Johnson’s platform on legalizing drugs.
The numbers in the polling show that Johnson should be angling to capture very liberal voters, as well as independents.
@15 Thank you for remembering. It was actually 12%.
Jed–quite right. Baldwin got a lot of Ron Paul backing, and I don’t think Goode really will.
Well keep in mind Chuck Baldwin got close to 200,000 in ’08, and wasn’t on the ballot in Cali.
If Goode gets CA–he’ll set the CP record. 200,000+. If not, he won’t get close.
Nagative, negative and more negative. A second POSITIVE report and yet some must continue the negative jive. This is a new year, Johnson is a very solid candidate with an outstanding resume for the office. Johnson’s appearance on Corbert alone would have bumped his numbers upward. Why can’t we start being positive, positive, positive ?
Gary Johnson 2012: The People’s President – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54PLUhpL8Y4&feature=related
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Presidential Voter Guide – http://cdn2-b.examiner.com/sites/default/files/styles/large_lightbox/hash/99/36/99364ac4eef54691551421102ad5549b.jpg
The Gary Johnson-Obama-Romney three way race – their stance on the issues – http://www.examiner.com/libertarian-in-west-palm-beach/the-obama-romney-johnson-three-way-race-their-stance-on-the-issues#ixzz1sDbiqcLC
I don’t see why you think the Greens will do so poorly. Stein seems like a good campaigner. I don’t think Goode will get CA but we’ll see.
As far as the Greens, I’ll be surprised if they can break 100,000 this round. I think the CP and Goode, if they can get the CA AIP ballot line, might pull a more serious number.
I agree with Paulie, Americans Elect are likely to hit double digits, especially depending on their “nominee”.
For a control, try polling some other names and parties, including a few you invent just for that purpose. It’s basically a “neither Obama nor Romney” response at this stage, and that will be fragmented into 4 plus some smaller fragments by the election, while most of it will be absorbed back into the Obama, Romney or don’t vote at all camps based on “lesser evil/wasted vote” miscalculations and fatalism.
gp: the people being polled likely responded mostly to the “Libertarian” and not to the “Johnson”…
me: Or possibly to a name other than Obama or Romney. Still, if the L brand has risen to that level with a “real” (though early) poll, that sounds like an accomplishment of sorts. Ls may take a (tiny) bow for this. iirc, this is the second such PPP poll. This is starting to feel like a trend…
Or Americans Elect, which is quite likely to get more votes than the LP, CP and GP combined, depending on who their candidates will be.
True. Also, April polls for November elections are pretty useless in general, especially in regards to alt parties.
It leads supporters to think that Johnson can get 15% in an average of September polls and/or 5% in November, if they don’t understand how these things work.
After he already switched to LP, and with Ron Paul on the ballot in that same primary.
I’m all for balancing the unrealistic high expectations from these sorts of polls with some realism, but 0.2% of Republican primary voters in a meaningless “beauty contest” primary, after the candidate has dropped out of the NSGOP race and switched to LP and with Ron Paul competing in the same primary is not indicative of anything at all as far as the general election goes.
However, to the extent that a Libertarian Presidential candidate — and mindful that Johnson got 0.2% in his last Republican primary, the people being polled likely responded mostly to the “Libertarian” and not to the “Johnson” — we should be aiming our platform to match.
Coddling the Republican antiabortionists is the wrong direction.
Any poll such as this that does not include all candidates whose party is on the ballot in enough states that they could in theory be elected President is useless.
To me it sounds like Johnson is intentionally trying to appeal to those on the left, and hope they come around on his ideas of fiscal conservatism.
I wouldn’t read too much into these numbers, but it is interesting that GJ seems to do best with “very liberal” and “independent.” Independent is no surprise, but very liberal MIGHT be attributable to GJ’s anti-war and legalize pot stances.
I wonder if the Greens or CP will show up in this sort of polling in the coming months. Or AE. Stay tuned.
Readers should note that this is a 3-way poll that does not list a Green or Constitution Party candidate. Conclusions as to where Johnson will collect votes may therefore have issues on the farther right and further left.