New Hampshire Libertarians Included in Recent Polling

Recent polling of likely New Hampshire voters shows New Hampshire Libertarians within striking distance of a combined four percent of the gubernatorial vote and three percent in the U.S. Senate race.

Three statewide candidates will appear as Libertarians on the November midterm election ballot. Kelly Halldorson and Dr. Karlyn Borysenko are both running for New Hampshire Governor, whereas Jeremy Kauffman is challenging incumbent-Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan and Republican Don Bolduc. Only the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections are used in New Hampshire to determine party ballot access and recognition. For the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire, a Libertarian candidate must earn four percent of the total vote in their respective election to secure party recognition.

A recent Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of likely New Hampshire voters shows Kelly Halldorson in third with two percent of likely midterm voters (2.2%). Following her is Dr. Karlyn Borysenko, an organizational psychologist the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire endorsed at its most recent state convention, with an additional two percent of likely midterm voters (1.6%). Independent Political Report has written on both gubernatorial candidates for a previous article.

While the polling data is limited, it offers a valuable glimpse into several notable factors about the sources of support for both candidates. Halldorson pulls equally from Republicans, Democrats, and independents, whereas Borysenko pulls purely from independent voters. Independent voters for this poll likely include self-identified Libertarian voters, as only the Republicans and Democrats are specified in the Suffolk poll for their recognition as New Hampshire political parties.

Suffolk University polling data shows that Jeremy Kauffman, another statewide candidate formally endorsed by the Libertarian Party of New Hampshire, is performing at three percent of the vote (2.6%). However, much like the Borysenko campaign, Kauffman benefits primarily from independent support and is the first choice of six percent (6%) of such voters.

A separate poll conducted by Data for Progress, a progressive thank tank and data firm led by Sean McElwee, shows that New Hampshire Libertarians are just as likely to obtain ballot access.

While only factoring Kelly Halldorson in the gubernatorial race, Data for Progress finds that four percent of likely New Hampshire voters would support her as a Libertarian candidate in a three-way race with incumbent-Republican Christopher Sununu and the Democratic Party nominee Tom Sherman. Like the data found in the Suffolk University poll findings, Halldorson pulls support from a more varied pool of Democrats, Republicans, and independent voters.

Additionally featured in the Data for Progress survey, Jeremy Kauffman continues to sit at three percent of the vote in his election. Crosstabs see Kauffman’s support coming solely from Republicans and independent voters. The survey shows that Kauffman (5%) and Halldorson (7%) are both more popular with independent voters than any other demographic.

The New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office initially confirmed with Independent Political Report on a September 15 phone call that both Libertarian gubernatorial candidates will have their totals combined for recognition purposes. However, independent Political Report has contacted the New Hampshire Secretary of State’s office again for additional information regarding the specific statute and is awaiting comment.

The Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll of 500 likely New Hampshire voters was conducted using live telephone interviews from September 23 to September 26. The margin of error is ±4.4 percentage points. The Data for Progress poll of 1,147 likely New Hampshire voters was conducted using SMS and web panel responses from September 23 to September 30. The margin of error is ±3.0 percentage points.