Promoted from a comment. Original Comment by Socratic Gadfly
Hey, guys, you know what will get the LNC out of the hole? RFK Jr. as your new celebrity prez candidate!
Socratic Gadfly
As reported in the New York Times and reported on Taegan Goddard’s PoliticalWire.com:
The Times wrote: “In July, Mr. Kennedy met privately with Angela McArdle, the chair of the Libertarian Party, at a conference they were both attending in Memphis — a meeting that has not previously been reported.”
The New York Times noted that the Libertarian Party excels at securing ballot access.
Addendum: We are advised that the meeting occurred at Freedom Fest and lasted more than an hour.
Saying “ah, no” to a documented fact of reality doesn’t magically make that fact go away. The Moderna vaccine passed its general safety phase in May of 2020. Hundreds of thousands of Americans — including my mother — died of COVID-19 between and the time that it pleased the crown to graciously deign to allow the public to use it.
tk: Sure, if by “rushed to the market” you mean “held off the market for six months after it passed its general safety trial, while hundreds of thousands died and the FDA fucked around.”
me: Ah, no. While I’m OK with right to try experimental compounds, I certainly believe that a new tech would need to be tested for a longer time period, to ID side effects. Some lives may have been saved in the short term, but ruined long term, for a disease that had a relatively low death rate, particularly among younger folks.
“My sense is the mRNA jab was rushed to market in what appears to me to be in an irresponsible way.”
Sure, if by “rushed to the market” you mean “held off the market for six months after it passed its general safety trial, while hundreds of thousands died and the FDA fucked around.”
SG,
Thanks for the clarification. In my case, I was weighing the often-confusing data I was receiving in 20-21 when considering whether to get jabbed, or not. I was ambivalent, it’s safe to say. Given my age and health, I didn’t feel the answer was clear cut, as I was on the cusp, age-wise. I was actually considering J&J as well, but then the news of blood clots came out, and as I have vericose veins, I intuited that the risks were likely higher for me than most, even though I’m male and iirc the clots were mostly showing up in females.
I am jab-less, and I’ve never had COVID. All things considered, I feel good about my decision.
I will say that the first few RFK interviews I saw him say something like, “I don’t want to lead with the vaccine issue,” but, unfortunately, we’re all just too interested still in this subject, and his interviewers felt compelled to dive deeper on the matter. He expresses humility pretty consistently, saying something like, “Show me where I’m wrong, and I’ll adjust my view.”
RFK’s open-mindedness appeals to me a lot personally, as pols are too often prone to hyperbolic sound-bites designed to appeal to a subset constituency, is my sense. I wish someone would talk him out of his proto-housing plan, which I understand his diagnosis but immensely dislike his “cure.” Similarly, his “plastic” discussion — which I’ve not heard a full airing as yet — seems to be infeasible at best and wrong-headed at worst. Whether they contribute excess toxicity into the environment is something I’d entertain, but I find it far too complex and therefore not a good subject for a presidential campaign.
Robert, gotcha on “plandemic,” and gotcha that we may be on the same side on discussing the lab leak.
On vaccines re COVID? My plaint is the monopolistic pricing actions by companies that had government help, and second, the *relative* low effectiveness of the mRNA shots.
I personally got the J&J before the “pause” (which I question itself). https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2022/09/coronavirus-week-121-vaccine-losers.html
And am glad.
SG,
To be clear, I’ve never used the term “plandemic,” and I’ve seen no evidence that the pandemic was planned. My sense is the mRNA jab was rushed to market in what appears to me to be in an irresponsible way. It appears to have worked for some, but at what cost? Was a risk/reward analysis even done? Were the side effects even known, given the time constraints?
I have no position on the many vaccines that have come to market since passage of the Vaccine Act, but that law is clearly anti-free-market.
Nor do I have a position on the lab leak theory, but the massive censorship and suppression of what sounds on it face a reasonable explanation to be completely disgusting, a massive government overreach.
NF,
Yes, Kennedy/Gabbard would be great optics as a way to cancel out the old pot-smoking R positioning. (I’d suggested that team on 9/24, actually, in this thread.)
I’ve heard RFK speak highly of Tulsi recently, so the idea is not all that far-fetched.
Robert: While I reject things like the “Plandemic” in particular and antivaxxerism in general, after Pro Publica’s reporting, I actually find the lab leak MORE plausible than in 2020. https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2022/10/coronavirus-week-125-lab-leak-theory.html
A comment on Bob Capozzi’s remarks… since there is such turmoil within the LP currently and since the party has never nominated a Democrat before (at least to my knowledge) perhaps it would be a smart move to go with a Kennedy-Gabbard ticket. I know I made the Gabbard part up but at least perhaps the media would stop viewing Libertarians as disaffected Republicans. I for one have been a Libertarian since 1974 and the only time I changed registration to Republican was to vote for Ron Paul in the GOP primary. I took a hot shower and switched my registration back immediately! I have never been a Democrat so lets see how that feels with this ticket.
jim: He blames vaccines for causing the 1918 Spanish Flu, HIV, and autism.
me: I’ve watched maybe 10 long-form podcasts with RFK, and I was surprised by him, as I was historically not a fan of his uncles and father. I never heard him say anything about the Spanish flu or HIV. His discussion of autism was sufficiently hedged for my purposes.
jim: Giving someone like that the LP Presidential nomination could be more damaging to the party’s future than anything the MC has tweeted.
me: Given how people like the All-In hosts — obviously very smart tech VC bros who seem very heterodox in their views — seemed impressed and even had fundraisers for RFK suggests your sense of “damage” seems to me unjustified. Rogan and Fridman seemed to me also impressed. Measuring “damage” is probably impossible, but most LP candidates have said things that said highly unpopular things TO THE EXTENT anyone heard them at all.
And then there’s Gary Johnson’s statement: “…I’d vote for [RFK] in a heartbeat, because he’s not Biden and he’s not Trump.” This may be a cynical take, and yet that’s a take that’s probably a majority position, that both Biden and Trump are unfit for the office.
RFK’s take on Ukraine — which for me is the top issue for 24 — is the best I’ve heard.
Now, for NAP absolutists who have no particular interest in credibility or relevance, I can see why RFK’s “heresies” are “damaging” from their perspective. BTW, my sense is the LP is careening toward collapse.
There would be risks to the LP nominating RFK, certainly. I’m not even sure I’d vote for him. Personally, I’d rather see Amash seek the nomination (despite his being pro-life), but he’s not running. Maybe now would be a good time to take a risk. “Purists” on a NAP jihad that has no path toward relevancy think that “risk” means taking WAY outside the Overton Window that amount to preaching to the converted.
RFK doesn’t just think that the coronavirus vaccines haven’t been tested properly. He blames vaccines for causing the 1918 Spanish Flu, HIV, and autism. Giving someone like that the LP Presidential nomination could be more damaging to the party’s future than anything the MC has tweeted.
The lab leak theory was plausible in 2020, when it was believed that corona came from a bat. The Wuhan lab was studying coronaviruses from bats and there were no bats sold at the wet market. Subsequent research into the genetics of the virus found that it came from a raccoon dog, which were sold at the wet market, but viruses from which were not being studied by the lab. No testing was done on the animals in the wet market because they were all destroyed. However, testing was done on the machines that remove fur and hair and other places at the wet market and traces of the earliest versions of the coronavirus were detected there. Also detected on those machines were related versions of the coronavirus that never made the jump to humans. Not only did the virus almost certainly come from the wet market, researchers were able to narrow down the specific area of the wet market where it made the jump to humans.
There have been very few studies on the effectiveness of surgical masks for coronavirus, but they indicated with low confidence a roughly 15% – 20% reduction in transmission, give or take. The problem with the studies is that they were plagued by widespread non-compliance. Even the people who always wore the masks while in public would come home and they would often live with someone who did not wear the mask in public and then proceed to spread the virus to everyone in his household, including those who did wear the mask while in public. That high uncertainty over their effectiveness, where the researchers could not definitively say ‘masks help by this much’, has led many people to jump from ‘we aren’t sure exactly how much masks help’ to the false statement that ‘masks are entirely ineffective’.
You’ll have to be more specific on your Fauci claims. I pay very little attention to him but, from what I’ve seen, he’s just a Republican scapegoat. That isn’t to say I’m in full agreement with him on everything.
And here is an LNC member posting a Link to the Kennedy campaign pages
https://twitter.com/mlcowen/status/1706845646920036594?t=q4MmCpQ3UOIeGczr19ankg&s=19
The compressed URL is
Martin Cowen
@mlcowen
https://rfkjr.co/DqwW
And that compressed link leads to the Kennedy page in question
https://www.kennedy24.com/my-leap-of-faith-video
“* Covid was bio-engineered in a Chinese lab”
Related to this, in the past week the Cabinet-level Department of Human and Health Services (HHS) has banned any federal funding going to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) for the next 10 years.
Jim,
To be clear, I ID as a moderate, heterodox libertarian, and am no fan of the Mises Caucus.
I would think that most Ls of various stripes would oppose the Vaccine Act, as a blatant government intervention. I scanned your CNN link, and I didn’t see proof that RFK is “anti-vax,” but that they haven’t been properly tested, alone or cumulatively. Avoiding these later vaxx’s with Vaccine Act protections strikes me as a reasonable position. Personally, I don’t know if he’s getting the issue right, but his opposition to the Vaccine Act should be the libertarian position.
I was skeptical about all the Fauci hate until his emails scheming to take down the Great BD and his basic admission that gain-of-function was being conducted at the Wuhan Lab, iirc. If it was merely a straight-up rejection of the GBC, I could respect saying “we disagree with our colleagues, and here’s why.” That would be a mensch move. That’s not what he and Collins did. They smeared the GBC in a sneaky way.
At this point, there have been SO MANY contradictory studies, I remain undecided on masks. Last Hopkins report I heard said they are largely ineffective, iirc, and most masks don’t work at all for Covid 19.
robert capozzi “RFK is not “anti-vax,” which he repeats just about every appearance I’ve seen. It’s a charge that’s used to marginalize his views.”
No, RFK Jr actually is an anti-vaxxer and has a long history of being so. He has very recently tried to pretend that history doesn’t exist. Quotes and sources: https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/21/politics/fact-check-rfk-not-anti-vax/index.html
robert capozzi “As for Covid conspiracies, have you not seen the emails between Fauci and Collins, etc., in response to the Great Barrington Declaration? Sure looks like a conspiracy in fact to me!”
Republicans and the Mises Caucus have a Fauci fetish. Fauci disagreed with the strategy of the Great Barrington Declaration and put out messaging to that effect. Disagreeing with a strategy isn’t a conspiracy theory.
The Covid conspiracy theorists push any or all of the following blatantly false claims:
* Covid doesn’t actually exist
* Covid was bio-engineered in a Chinese lab
* Covid was a “plandemic” designed to enrich pharmaceutical companies
* Covid was a “plandemic” designed to created public subservience to the government
* The Covid vaccines kill more people than the disease
* The Covid vaccines are more harmful than the disease, even if they don’t kill people
* The Covid vaccines contain graphene oxide, microchip trackers, parasites, etc.
* The Covid vaccines are entirely ineffective or will make outcomes worse if infection occurs
* Wearing a surgical mask is entirely ineffective
* The Chinese embedded surgical masks sent to the US with Covid
* It is better to get the disease than to get the vaccine
That isn’t a complete list. I have seen libertarians, mostly affiliated with the Mises Caucus, push 10 out of those 11. That is RFK Jrs potential constituency within the LP.
R: what is the profile of the LNC delegate that is nominating RFK Jr.?”
J: Anti-vaxxers and Covid conspiracy theorists.
Me: Ryan asks a great question. I’m no longer in the LP as I’m not a literalistic NAP obsessive, but there is certainly a strong contingent in the LM that have no interest in being relevant and would rather repeat the L liturgy.
RFK is not “anti-vax,” which he repeats just about every appearance I’ve seen. It’s a charge that’s used to marginalize his views.
As for Covid conspiracies, have you not seen the emails between Fauci and Collins, etc., in response to the Great Barrington Declaration? Sure looks like a conspiracy in fact to me!
Ryan “outside of entryists that are RFK Jr. loyalists, what is the profile of the LNC delegate that is nominating RFK Jr.?”
Anti-vaxxers and Covid conspiracy theorists. There are a disturbing number of them in the LP. More than I would have guessed prior to 2020. I had thought they were mostly in the Green party.
“Sure, the way podcast reach is measured is somewhat problematic.”
Well duh. You get 10000 regular listeners to listen to all of a 1-hour episode. That’s a huge audience for a podcast. That’s 600,000 listener minutes, which means it would have less than 2% the reach of a single episode of CW’s Stargirl. In terms of votes since that’s what politics is all about, 10000 gives you 1/4 of the support Brian Carroll of the American Solidarity Party received in 2020 and 1/5 of the support independent Brock Pierce received in 2020.
TV is declining but it still dwarfs everything else other than a couple streaming services. Podcasting as a means to reach the masses still has to be proven. And if anyone wants to argue this point, you better bring quantifiable numbers.
“That RFK — who probably VERY few knew of a year ago…”
He’s a Kennedy and considering the media’s long-term idiotic love affair with that family…doubtful.
“…has polled in the 10-20% as a D for the past few months. Certainly, his campaign is breaking through among those who are paying attention, based on these polls.”
Polling that asks for D primary votes has him normally within the margin of error ahead of Marianne Williamson.
Considering the problematic state of public political polling, I question how many dyed-in-the-wool Democrats are legitimately voting for him versus Republicans just playing sabotage. It strikes me as Kanye West-ish as far as a few people were saying “oh look, here’s this famous black rapper, he’s going to get a lot of votes”.
Ryan,
Sure, the way podcast reach is measured is somewhat problematic. That RFK — who probably VERY few knew of a year ago — has polled in the 10-20% as a D for the past few months. Certainly, his campaign is breaking through among those who are paying attention, based on these polls.
Aside from Trump cultists, there’s data that suggests that Americans are NOT excited about a Trump v Biden rematch.
Compared with the announced LP would-be nominees are all unknown to the masses.
“RFK has been on most major and many minor podcasts, which have — these days — more viewership than the corporate press. Times are a changing.”
Are there real numbers out there? Yes, Joe Rogan is huge, that’s one. And I listen to a ton of podcasts. But most podcast content has miniscule listenership. YouTube views are meaningless unless you measure the time watched because if I’m a single viewer and I watch a minute of a YouTube show 10 times, that counts as 10 views. Streamers are starting to do this as a version of “ratings” . Per TV Grim Reaper Substack and Twitter, where 60 million viewer minutes represents 1 million viewers watching for 1 hour. A completely nothing TV network show for example like CW’s Stargirl gets 40 million viewer minutes.
Ryan,
RFK has been on most major and many minor podcasts, which have — these days — more viewership than the corporate press. Times are a changing.
Considering that the presidential nominee vote is by a delegate convention, outside of entryists that are RFK Jr. loyalists, what is the profile of the LNC delegate that is nominating RFK Jr.? Is this delegate pro-Mises or anti-Mises? Whondid they support in 2020?
“He would attract new members, more money, would give the LP a presents in the media and possibly the debate stage.”
Would he? I don’t really see anyone talking about him now after the initial aryicle outside of orgs like Fox and Zerohedge. Fox are giving it airtime because he’s a “Democrat” criticizing Biden and anything to make the Democratic primaries more a pain in the ass for Biden is a plus. Place RFK Jr. outside the Democratic Party and he’s now in a general election he also becomes a competitor to Trump for votes, so I think the attention paid to him would decline.
JW, RFK is claiming his love for the free market, except on environmentalism. Now, he’s clearly not a consistent free marketeer, given his ill-conceived housing plan. He’s no Amash, but Amash ain’t running and lacks the gravity of RFK.
Given that many L prez candidates are former Rs, might it not be helpful to have a prominent former D at the top of the ticket?
If this were to happen, the VP also needs to be credible. Hornberger doesn’t cut it, credibility-wise, plus I have a hard time imagining that Bumper would defer to RFK. He’s far too doctrinaire, based on observation. More likely is JH would UNDERMINE RFK.
If RFK runs, it would be a major development. He would attract new members, more money, would give the LP a presents in the media and possibly the debate stage. He is in-line with the LP on social issues and foreign policy, so he would just need to be balanced with an economic libertarian like Hornberger. Ultimately, it would be an ideal situation.
However, its an IF. Every cycle, there’s always a possibility of a big name candidate running, from Justin Amash, Thomas Massie, Gary Johnson (pre 2012), Jesse Ventura, Ron Paul (post 1988) and so forth. Doesn’t mean its going to happen and I’m not sure the current LP leadership have the tact to recruit a major candidate.
Article does not actually reveal the poll results for a 3-way race; they just talk around it and give numbers that are not quite the right thing.
There are other issues. Many other issues.
RFK Jr. is no Ron Paul but then again who is? There’s only one Ron Paul. RFK Jr. is not a hardcore prog. He’s not a neocon. I agree that he’s bad on economy but I’m a lot more concerned about WWIII and vax mandates right now with whatever the next scamdemic is going to be. Also he’s talking about police reform, bringing the troops home, cutting regulations on small business, stopping mass surveillance, switching drug policy from enforcement to medical care. That’s probably more than you’ll ever see from the Reps or Dems. Do you want to win and get MOST of what you want or stay pure, lose, and get nothing?
50 years of work and the LP has almost nothing to show for it. Ron Paul running for pres as a Republican did 100,000x more for liberty than the LP ever has. They should be begging RFK Jr. to run for their nomination because the party is about to be B-R-O-K-E. But hey, when it’s not YOUR property and it’s all just collective (it’s the “PARTY’s property”), who cares if it goes to 0? Just blame it on the next guy! (Sounds an awful lot like politicians in a democracy, @Hoppe) Looking at the LNC it’s not hard to understand what’s happening because at least 2/3 of them probably couldn’t run a Waffle House and the other 1/3 who actually realize what’s happening and want to help are either too timid or outnumbered to fix anything.
Sure, talk about purity all day long as an excuse for not doing what needs to be done. Meanwhile nothing gets done, nobody cares, and you remain completely useless to the liberty movement and forgotten by history. At this rate there may not even be an LP by 2028 to run future candidates so what exactly is being preserved by insisting RKF Jr. isn’t pure enough for you? Be pure, keep losing, and waste donor time and money in the process. Then maybe you will be remembered by history but as the people that managed the downfall of the LP.
Yes some purity is obviously important but this is politics. In politics you have to make compromises to accomplish anything. And no I’m not a prag, I was on board with Mises but they need to deliver the goods. Taking over a party and using it to lose the same as before is meaningless. If you aren’t willing to compromise A LITTLE to do what needs to be done to win, that’s fine, but you should get out of politics and go do non-profit work instead otherwise you’re just wasting everyone else’s time and money on your hobby.
From Bing IA:
According to the web search results, the No Labels party has ballot access in 10 states as of August 2023. These 10 states are: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah1234. The party is a movement that aims to give voice to America’s commonsense majority and break down the barriers of hyper-partisanship2. It may offer its ballot line to an independent Unity presidential ticket in 2024 if that’s what the American people clearly want2.
If he’s supposedly for the environment why doesn’t he just join the Green Party.
Rasmussen is now polling him as an independent/third party candidate: https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-faces-disastrous-defeat-if-rfk-jr-runs-third-party-candidate-1828858
I wonder why RFK Jr would try to contort himself into being a libertarian when many of his policy positions are pretty much the opposite? I would think he would be a better fit with No Labels.
All the things the DNC is doing to throttle RFK is probably his main consideration for considering the LP or an independent run. He has constantly talking about the “free market” is optimal. Couple that with his position on Ukraine, and you’d think that this could work to be at least garner very significant coverage and voter consideration.
Unfortunately, the LP is too often highly dogmatic, and so much of the party is looking for a Pope, usually an unknown one with no ability to be competitive.
Recall that the LP used to be pro-choice, per the platform, and yet pro-life Ron Paul was the nominee in 88. There’s a way to acknowledge off-platform positions and still nominate a “heretic.”
If celebrity were my heaviest weighted criteria, I’d have to go with the metalcore guy. I kind of doubt he is in this for the long haul, and may or may not have principles, but he does have an audience of young people, which is, imo, the most important demo.
Hard pass. It’s not just a no, it’s a Hell no! Even a F**k No!No more retreads from ANY party other than the LP. This crap didn’t work with Republican retreads…why would anyone think it would work with a Democrat? Nope.
Talking with Angela and being the candidate aren’t necessarily the same thing.
For the record, I am opposed to him being the LP candidate. It’s bad enough they ran Gary Johnson and Jo Jorgensen the past two elections (2012 Gary Johnson wasn’t horrible).
It would be very interesting indeed were RFK to seek the LP nomination, even MORE interesting if they gave it to him. It’d be interesting to see if the Mises Caucusoids went for it. RFK is great on some issues, kinda awful on others, like his housing plan.
In the REASON interview, he described himself as libertarian, except on environmental matters. I can sorta see that, and I’d submit that the libertarian/propertarian approach doesn’t deal with negative externalities very well.
Tulsi Gabbard — whom I’ve heard RFK speak highly of — might make a formidable running mate.
The prospect of a Biden v Trump v Kennedy is bound to shake things up. At minimum, I could see maybe a doubling of GJ 16’s result, as it’s become increasingly obvious that both Biden and Trump are unfit for the office.
Thanks, George. I figured you guys would pick up on that!
I love the denialism in the full NYT piece by RFK Jr. He’s just “exploring his options.”
Intriguing development.