Libertarian Ted Brown is garnering increased attention as recent polling suggests his candidacy in Texas’ hotly contested U.S. Senate race could impact the final margin between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
In an article published Thursday, October 22, Newsweek examined Brown’s potential influence on the election, speaking with both Brown and several political scientists about how his support could influence the final results. The publication cites a recent University of Houston Hobby School poll, which found Talarico leading Paxton 48 percent to 46 percent. Brown, meanwhile, is covering the spread with 3 percent.
Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, told Newsweek that Brown’s campaign has become “a refuge” for Texas Republicans struggling to support Paxton, adding that his support is almost entirely coming from a mix of Republicans and independents. He pointed to polling in Harris County showing that more than two-thirds of Brown’s supporters also backed the Republican candidate for county judge, while only about one in 10 supported the Democrat.
Another political scientist, Brandon Rottinghaus of the University of Houston, similarly told Newsweek that Brown’s candidacy is giving voters dissatisfied with their usual party another option without requiring them to abandon their political preferences. Rottinghaus cautioned, however, against assuming that all Libertarian voters would otherwise support Paxton if Brown were absent from the ballot, even if polling suggests that many of Brown’s supporters lean Republican.
Brown, meanwhile, told the publication that his campaign has faced pressure from Republicans and Democrats alike who accuse him of campaigning at the expense of their respective party’s nominee. He suggested that, based on conversations with voters, the Paxton campaign does have more to lose, but offered a different perspective on Libertarian voters entirely.
“If there’s no Libertarian in the race, Libertarian voters are about a third, a third and a third,” Brown told Newsweek. “A third would vote for the Democrat. A third would vote for the Republican. And a third wouldn’t even vote in that race at all.”
Brown previously challenged Republican incumbent Ted Cruz in the 2024 Senate election as the Libertarian nominee, with election returns showing he received 267,039 votes. He told Newsweek that he hopes to improve on that performance in November while also using his bid to raise awareness of the Libertarian Party.
When asked about the possibility of influencing the final outcome, Brown accepted that the losing candidate might blame him if the election is decided by a narrow margin, but said they should simply “let the chips fall where they may.”
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