IPR readers predictions: how’d we do?

On election eve, IPR polled readers to see how they saw the elections turning out. Here is how their predictions stacked up against the results:

bsharitt:

Overwhelming Obama victory with increased democratic majorities.

It depends on what you call overwhelming, but they certainly increased their majorities, and the electoral vote will not be close unless there is a massively unprecedented wave of faithless electors.

Ross Levin:

Epic fail for third parties.

It is not very easy to gauge whether there was an “epic failure.”

Richard Winger points out, The Libertarian Party polled over 1,000,000 votes for its candidates for US House, for the 4th time, in 2008. Breaking the 1,000,000 vote for US House candidates is something that no other party (other than the Dems & Reps) has done since 1914. This was achieved in 2008 despite the fact that we had candidates in only 126 districts.

The Libertarian Party is now ballot-qualified in over half the states. No other parties, except the Dems & Reps, can say that. Our presidential total has gone up 3 elections in a row, something that was never true before, except in the series 1972-1976-1980. Barr’s vote has topped 500,000; no other Libertarian running for president except Ed Clark did that.

A Libertarian running in a partisan election carried Fulton County and DeKalb County, the two biggest counties in the Atlanta meto region.

Libertarians also stayed on the ballot in NC, which saves them from having to get over a hundred thousand signatures needed to requalify.

The Green Party, among other things, received the highest percentage any of the current “major minor” parties has ever received for US Senate, polled the highest percentage for an alternative party for Governor of West Virginia since 1912, and elected a state legislator in Arkansas.

The Constitution Party received the most raw votes to date for president, and came out of the election retaining more states for ballot access than ever before.

The Socialist Party received more extensive media coverage than it has in several decades.

The four presidential candidates who came in 3rd through 6th all increased their or their party’s percentage of the vote from 2004.

A couple of good legal precedents were set in the substitution cases in Massachusetts and Pennsylvania.

Certainly, there was no major breakout year for independents and alternative parties as many had earlier hoped and predicted, but in recent historic terms it does not seem to be any type of epic failure.

Richard Winger:

There are now 7 minor party state legislators. I predict 10, 11 or 12 after tomorrow.

Unless there were wins of which I am not yet aware, this does not appear to have borne out.

Travis Maddox:

My prediction?…. WE GET SCREWED!

I’ll go with the US military here. Don’t ask, don’t tell.

Trent Hill :

I predict the entire Liberty Committee (Ron Paul’s caucus) will be re-elected as well as two new members: Tom McClintock (CA-4) by about 3%, and an extremely narrow win by BJ Lawson in NC-4.

I also predict MASS Prop. 1 will pass, as well as CA’s 8th prop and Michigan’s Legalized Marijuana props will all pass.

Trent was correct about the initatives. Lawson lost, McClintock’s race is still too close to call, and readers can fill in the information about the Liberty Committee in the comments.

Mike Gillis:

Obama wins in a 300+ EC landslide.

We see the beginnings of inter-party civil war in the GOP.

Third party challengers:

3rd place: Ralph Nader (850,000 to 1.5 million votes)

4th place: Bob Barr (500,000 to 750,000 votes)

5th place: Chuck Baldwin (200,000 to 300,000 votes)

6th place: Cynthia McKinney (150,000 to 200,000 votes)

Current numbers:

Nader

677,560

Barr

499,004

Baldwin

180,382

McKinney

146,296

Votes are still being counted, however.

The projected electoral vote is 364-162, with Missouri and one of Nebraska’s districts still too close to call.

svf:

Surprise win for McCain by 10-15 electoral votes.

Barr & Nader in a dead heat for 3rd with approx 1% and 1 million votes each. Let’s give it to Barr by a nose.

Baldwin 4th with 0.5% ish and McKinney a DISTANT 5th.

See above.

Nexus:

I predict Obama in a landslide, a Democratic super majority, The Great Depression part II, and The New Deal part II.

If a “super majority” means at least 60 votes in the Senate, at this time they are unlikely to get that many (three contests remain to be decided, and Lieberman might switch his caucus).

johncjackson:

All “Ron Paul Republicans” will lose. Even though I would like to see Bj Lawson win, it won’t happen. He is probably the best of them. Some of the others are downright embarrassing. I am not counting RP endorsed incumbents. I am talking about the new “movement.”

As for the POTUS:

Obama 51.46% 318 electoral
McCain 47.31 220
Nader 0.54
Barr 0.42
Baldwin 0.14
McKinney 0.08
Paul 0.03
Keyes 0.01
All Others 0.01

Pretty impressive prognostication abilities! Obama, McKinney and Keyes did a hair better than that, and Ron Paul’s totals will depend heavily on write-in votes, but overall, quite accurate.

Eternaverse:

Obama wins with a landslide (300 plus electoral votes). Barr and Nader both get about 1 million votes. McKinney and Bladwin get about 500,000 votes each.

Democrats get 56- 58 senate seats and a bigger majority in Congress.

The Green Party wins 2-4 state legislator seats, the Liberarians win 3-5.

The projection for Obama and the Democrats was on the money.

Sivarticus:

POTUS:

Obama: 51%
McCain: 46%
Nader: 1.5%
Barr: 0.8%
Baldwin: 0.4%
McKinney: 0.2%
Other: 0.1%

Minnesota Senate

Al Franken: 39%
Norm Coleman: 38%
Dean Barkley: 22%
James Niemackl: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%

Elsewhere

I predict a very narrow win for BJ Lawson, the biggest victory the Ron Paul movement will get this year.

If half those the projected Barr, Nader, Baldwin and McKinney voters defected to Obama at the last minute, that was on the money. The Minnesota projection was pretty accurate as well, but not the NC race.

LaineRBT:

Obama by a landslide over McCain

Mark Begich will defeat Ted Stevens

Ethan Berkowitz will defeat Don Young

I actually have high hopes that after the bailout with both McCain and Obama supporting it that Nader and Barr will have a strong showing.

Nader: 1.5-2 million votes

Bar:. .75-1million votes.

The Alaska races remain too close to call.

paulie cannoli:

I predict the LP will not touch this with a ten foot pole, and not just because it does not have a ten foot pole.

http://pauliecannoli.wordpress.com/2008/11/04/free-max-hardcore/

So far, I appear to be correct. The party of principle (TM) has nothing to say about a man in today’s America being sentenced to years in prison for…(drum roll)… obscenity.

Cortney:

Obama will unfortunatly win, but by how many I do not know.

I think that people will be surpirsed about how many people will be voting for third party candidates, which is exciting.

And I assume that incumbent Dana Rohrbacher will will a house seat in my district… he is a tool I might add.

Rohrabacher was, indeed, re-elected.

inDglass:

Indiana elects its first Libertarian to State House (Rex Bell and/or Ed Angleton). The LP also gets a few others elected to state legislatures. The LPTX is running 173 candidates. One of those has to get a bite.

More importantly, the Boston Tea Party has three elected officials tomorrow. It could be four if we can squeeze in BJ Lawson, but I haven’t seen any polls and people on this thread don’t seem confident.

No Libertarians won legislative seats anywhere. As far as I know, two of the BTP endorsed candidates were elected.

Jimmy Clifton:

Obama 53% 301 EC

McCain 42% 237 EC

Others 5%

See above.

LaineRBT

I predict based off no research that Sheehan gets around 10-15% of the vote in her race against Nancy Pelosi.

Mike Gillis:

I predict that Sheehan gets 20-25%

Barkley gets 18%

Pollina gets 25%

Sheehan, 17%; Barkley, 15%; Pollina, 21%.

John Lowell:

Nader will get 2-3 times Barr’s vote and Chuck Baldwin will surprize with a showing comparable to Barr’s.

See above.

green in brooklyn:

Greens wins: 2 Supervisor seats in San Fran (1 incumbent, 1 challenger)
State legislature seats in:
AR (Richard Carroll)
IL (Ante Marijan)
MN (Farheen Hakeem)
Good showing for Jesse Johnspon in WV (10%+) and Cindy Sheehan (25%+)

Failure all around for 3rd parties, as Obama gets first clear majority since Reagan.
Obama 51%
McCain 46%
Nader 1.1%
Barr 1.0%
McKinney 0.6%
Baldwin 0.2%
Paul 0.1% (probably much higher is write-ins were counted)

US senate:
Dem 57
Repub 41
VT Progressive 1
Lieberschmuck 1

Greens: one seat in the legislature (AR), one on the SF board of supervisors. Johnson got 5%.

Jeremy Young: pretty accurate overall.

Jeremy Young part II:

I do think Nader will defeat Barr, and McKinney will defeat Baldwin. And I predict no third-party Presidential candidate will break a million votes.

Again, fairly accurate, except for McKinney vs. Baldwin.

Gene Trosper:

Obama is a shoo in.

I also predict that this will be yet another election where third party candidates and activists get burned out and drop out because of the slaughter we receive.

That’s always the case, so that’s an easy prediction to make.

DWP2016:

DWP2016 // Nov 4, 2008 at 10:46 am

I predict McCain in a 278 – 260?Dewey Defeats Truman” upset.
McCain wins (EV’s):
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Virginia 13
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3

Electoral map here.

Gladly Anon

Since I don’t know any results as of yet, I guess I’ll estimate for laughs:

Obama wins, but by a slimmer margin than many expect (270-290).

Nader gets over a million, Barr gets under, with Baldwin getting a rather high percentage to the surprise of some (I’ll put him at .9%).

Colorado:

Republican Schaffer wins Senate, but Obama wins in the state in the presidential election. The fetus-is-alive bill gets shot down.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman defeats Franken and Barkley.

Alaska: Bird gets under 5%.

Colorado: Schaffer lost, Obama won, fetus is person initiative lost.
Minnesota: remains too close to call
Alaska: Also still too close to call, with Stevens ahead and Bird at 4%.

12 thoughts on “IPR readers predictions: how’d we do?

  1. LaineRBT

    I guess I was overly optimistic when it came to Nader and Barr’s vote totals; I really thought they would be able to gain some momentum with the anti bailout sentiment amongst a lot of people. I guess it will take until 2019 for any third party or independent candidate to capitalize off the capitulation of the major parties in this regard.

    I was close to correct on Sheehan’s percentage and again over optimistic about the showing of the Democrats against the Republican incumbents in my own state.

  2. LaineRBT

    Our system will fall apart into a brief phase of anarchy before the United State crumbles as the Soviet Union did into smaller independent nations.

  3. Ross Levin

    I was half-joking. I think I posted a few other predictions about vote totals and other specifics, but you don’t have to worry about it.

  4. johncjackson

    2012 Predictions:

    Obama 57.3%
    Huckabee 41.5
    Nader 0.5
    Root 0.4
    Baldwin 0.1
    Sheehan 0.1
    Others 0.1

  5. darolew

    These were the predictions I made a while back, though I don’t feel like digging up the comment:

    Ralph Nader: 700,000-1,000,000
    Bob Barr: 450,000-600,000
    Chuck Baldwin: 210,000-230,000
    Cynthia McKinney: 180,000-200,000
    Ron Paul: 15,000-35,000
    Alan Keyes: 15,000-30,000
    Gloria La Riva: 10,000-15,000
    Róger Calero: 9,000-11,000
    Brian Moore: 8,000-9,000
    Charles Jay: 1,000-5,000

    I overestimated Nader by a tad, same with McKinney and Baldwin; I overestimated all the (explicit) socialists by a couple thousand. I underestimated Keyes. My Barr, Paul, and Jay predictions were all accurate.

    Not too bad overall, though my predictions were admittedly fairly broad. None of the election results really surprised me at all.

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