What do you think will happen tomorrow? Post ’em here. Candidate totals, party totals, initiatives, vote fraud, state by state, national, local…feel free to add your own categories.
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May 15, 2026
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What do you think will happen tomorrow? Post ’em here. Candidate totals, party totals, initiatives, vote fraud, state by state, national, local…feel free to add your own categories.
Comments are closed.
No way Baldwin scores .9
Though no one should look at his early percentages and make guesses—the latest states to turn in will be his best.
Since I don’t know any results as of yet, I guess I’ll estimate for laughs:
Obama wins, but by a slimmer margin than many expect (270-290).
Nader gets over a million, Barr gets under, with Baldwin getting a rather high percentage to the surprise of some (I’ll put him at .9%).
Colorado:
Republican Schaffer wins Senate, but Obama wins in the state in the presidential election. The fetus-is-alive bill gets shot down.
Minnesota: Norm Coleman defeats Franken and Barkley.
Alaska: Bird gets under 5%.
Oops, that was Green in Brooklyn, my bad!
Still only quoting.
Oops, I just meant the first one–that the Greens will win a few seats.
I think you are right that the Greens will win anywhere from 2-5 state legislative seats. The Libertarians, I predict, may win as many as 3. The CP has a good shot at one. The Progressives already have 6 incumbents but I think they may add one or two to that.
I haven’t made those predictions. Possibly you saw me quoting someone. Which races do you see as likely wins for any/all of those?
Paulie,
I think you are right that the Greens will win anywhere from 2-5 state legislative seats. The Libertarians, I predict, may win as many as 3. The CP has a good shot at one. The Progressives already have 6 incumbents but I think they may add one or two to that.
Cattrot,
How’s it going, good friend? Well, I hope.
I’m working on a deal to arrange an indugence for you if you convert to an authentic, non-ide0logical Catholicism, Cattrot. That way I won’t have to be right about systemic collapse. You’ll confess that you we just joshin’ all along, that there was nothing more to it than that, you’ll be reconciled and forgiven the temporal penalty incurred. Think about it, Cattrot, non-Obaman unity and a chance at a whole new life. Even a politician might go for it.
I predict McCain in a 278 – 260″Dewey Defeats Truman” upset.
McCain wins (EV’s):
Alabama 9
Alaska 3
Arizona 10
Arkansas 6
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Georgia 15
Idaho 4
Indiana 11
Kansas 6
Kentucky 8
Louisiana 9
Mississippi 6
Missouri 11
Montana 3
Nebraska 5
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3
Ohio 20
Oklahoma 7
South Carolina 8
South Dakota 3
Tennessee 11
Texas 34
Utah 5
Virginia 13
West Virginia 5
Wyoming 3
Obama is a shoo in.
I also predict that this will be yet another election where third party candidates and activists get burned out and drop out because of the slaughter we receive.
I think I am going to go to sleep and maybe when I wakeup things will be decided by the deciders.
I will say zero wins.
OK, fair enough.
Anyone else?
No, I simply can’t make a prediction, because I don’t know enough.
So, your prediction is zero wins for non-D/R at the state legislative level as well?
Paulie @54: sorry, I’ve been honing my predictive powers only based on who wins races. I thought Krikorian, Pollina, and Barkley had a chance at one point, but that no longer seems to be the case.
I do think Nader will defeat Barr, and McKinney will defeat Baldwin. And I predict no third-party Presidential candidate will break a million votes.
@ BAN
Obama Sweeps Early NH Towns, Ron Paul Gets Write-Ins
November 3rd, 2008
Obama won big in the two New Hampshire towns that tally their votes in the early hours of the morning on Election Day.
Obama carried the town of Hart’s Location by a vote of 17 to 10 for McCain. Ron Paul received 2 write-in votes.
In Dixville Notch, Obama beat McCain by a count of 15 to 6.
With 115 residents between them, Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location get every eligible voter to the polls beginning at midnight on Election Day. Between them, the towns have been enjoying their first-vote status since 1948.
Hart’s Location started opening its polls early in 1948, the year Harry S. Truman beat Thomas Dewey, to accommodate railroad workers who had to get to work early. Hart’s Location got out of the early voting business in 1964 after some residents grew weary of all the publicity, but brought it back in 1996.
Dixville Notch, nestled in a mountain pass 1,800 feet up and about halfway between the White Mountain National Forest and the Canadian border, followed suit in 1960, when John F. Kennedy beat Richard M. Nixon. Nixon, the Republican, swept all nine votes cast in Dixville that year, and before Tuesday, the town had gone for a Democrat only once since then. That was in 1968, when the tally was Democrat Hubert Humphrey eight, Nixon four.
John Lowell, how pesimistic. If this actually ahppens, I will convert to your non-idiological Catholic position. But for now, I will maintain my conspiracy theory, backed from an appearance/vision from the Virgin Mary, that Obama is running a Democratic campaign as a false flag in order to institute the good points of marxism, while banning abortion and same-sex unions, and he does have what it takes to solve the economic and foreign policy crises. So just pray on election night that I am right, and God bless.
Thanks! Anything about non-D/R?
I did detailed House, Senate, Governor, and President predictions here, if anyone’s interested.
51 was re: 49
I agree with all but the last sentence – although it contains the word perhaps, so I don’t really disagree.
Here’s what I’m watching:
Greens wins: 2 Supervisor seats in San Fran (1 incumbent, 1 challenger)
State legislature seats in:
AR (Richard Carroll)
IL (Ante Marijan)
MN (Farheen Hakeem)
Good showing for Jesse Johnspon in WV (10%+) and Cindy Sheehan (25%+)
Failure all around for 3rd parties, as Obama gets first clear majority since Reagan.
Obama 51%
McCain 46%
Nader 1.1%
Barr 1.0%
McKinney 0.6%
Baldwin 0.2%
Paul 0.1% (probably much higher is write-ins were counted)
US senate:
Dem 57
Repub 41
VT Progressive 1
Lieberschmuck 1
I’m really depressed about all of this, BTW. Not only that, but I have to deal with Mayor Bloombucks for another 5 years as the Big Apple takes it’s worst dive since Ford was pres.
This time its going to be a little different, Tweedle Dee will defeat Tweedle Dum. Nader will get 2-3 times Barr’s vote and Chuck Baldwin will surprize with a showing comparable to Barr’s. But none of the above will matter. Post election, look for the failure of the bailout and its accompanying loot to precent a creaking system from going under, a credit card crisis the likes of which will utterly immobilize American business , raise unemployment above 12%, bring a 6000 Dow and an uncomprehending Obama as he simply flails about a creature of events. Watch as Al Malaki kicks him out of Iraq before he has a chance further to inflame Afghanistan. The system will be humiliated and there will be calls for a second constitutional convention. Then, perhaps, we’ll have real elections.
I predict that Sheehan gets 20-25%
Barkley gets 18%
Pollina gets 25%
I predict based off no research that Sheehan gets around 10-15% of the vote in her race against Nancy Pelosi.
Obama 53% 301 EC
McCain 42% 237 EC
Others 5%
No polls that I can find, Paulie. But we’ll know in about 20 hours!
inDglass:
Interesting. Although, as far as I know none of those are listed BTP on the ballot. Do you have any polls in Rex Bell’s race?
D’oh! I hate that I can’t fix my typo(e)s on here.
So what statement did I win this prestigious award for?
Paulie. Rex Bell finished 22% in a 3-way race last time, losing to a Republican who ran a $200,000 campaign. This time it’s a 2-way race against the same Republican who lost all his GOP funding after getting in some scandal. Rex has campaigned hard and has a real shot. He is also a BTP candidate.
The BTP has Jim Casarjian-Perry already holding office in Massachusetts.
Newly elected BTPNC chair Jason Gatties is running a very active campaign for Lake Michigan college board. There are 7 candidates running for 4 positions with no party names listed on the ballot.
That’s three BTP candidates I have a lot of confidence in. There is also BJ Lawson in NC who has a great chance by virtue of being a Republican.
Who would the BTP candidates be? And what other party tickets are they running on?
Also, just out of curiosity, does anyone have a list of candidates that are only running on the BTP ticket?
I could care less about POTUS.
Could, or couldn’t?
“I forget. It was memorable, though.â€
You just one an award of your own, Ross.
1. One, won, Juan.
2. Nobody goes there anymore, it’s too crowded.
“I forget. It was memorable, though.”
You just one an award of your own, Ross. 🙂
Indiana elects its first Libertarian to State House (Rex Bell and/or Ed Angleton). The LP also gets a few others elected to state legislatures. The LPTX is running 173 candidates. One of those has to get a bite.
Any polls indicate this?
More importantly, the Boston Tea Party has three elected officials tomorrow.
Which ones?
I could care less about POTUS.
Indiana elects its first Libertarian to State House (Rex Bell and/or Ed Angleton). The LP also gets a few others elected to state legislatures. The LPTX is running 173 candidates. One of those has to get a bite.
More importantly, the Boston Tea Party has three elected officials tomorrow. It could be four if we can squeeze in BJ Lawson, but I haven’t seen any polls and people on this thread don’t seem confident.
kthx
I forget. It was memorable, though.
Let me see if I can find it.
What did he say?
Mike Gillis won the first award I gave out. It was about a week ago.
Don’t worry, I can’t even vote yet.
I’ve gotten too old to vote.
Just putting this out there – everyone should click on the McCain ads because every time you do it costs McCain money (and possibly puts money in IPR’s pocket, but I’m not sure how that works).
Don’t worry, I can’t even vote yet.
I was not impressed with him, but then again I have really only known who he is since the last time he was up for re-election. Paulie gave me some intereting tid bits that I had not know about him that surprised me.
I am a young one if you all havent noticed yet.
Rohrabacher is definetly less friendly to liberty these days–but I think he’s still one of the guys you’d place in the “good guy” side of the room.
(Just in case anyone has doubts, yes, I’m being *deliberately* obtuse).
When’s the last time someone won?
It’s not a daily thing. If there’s a good quote I’ll give it out. The trophy’s in the mail.
He wasn’t always, though:
http://pauliecannoli.wordpress.com/2007/06/02/dana-rohrabacher-traitor-to-liberty/
http://pauliecannoli.wordpress.com/2007/05/09/dana-rohrabacher-traitor-to-liberty-2/
*Dana Rohrbacher will win
Obama will unfortunatly win, but by how many I do not know.
I think that people will be surpirsed about how many people will be voting for third party candidates, which is exciting.
And I assume that incumbent Dana Rohrbacher will will a house seat in my district… he is a tool I might add.
Who won yesterday?
paulie – you win my Quote of the Day award today.
I predict the LP will not touch this with a ten foot pole, and not just because it does not have a ten foot pole.
http://www.maxhardcoretv.com/FreeMaxHardcore.htm
johncjackson’s predictions look about right to me.
I also agree Lawson won’t win.
Well I predict :
Obama by a landslide over McCain
Mark Begich will defeat Ted Stevens
Ethan Berkowitz will defeat Don Young
I actually have high hopes that after the bailout with both McCain and Obama supporting it that Nader and Barr will have a strong showing.
Nader: 1.5-2 million votes
Bar:. .75-1million votes.
POTUS:
Obama: 51%
McCain: 46%
Nader: 1.5%
Barr: 0.8%
Baldwin: 0.4%
McKinney: 0.2%
Other: 0.1%
Minnesota Senate
Al Franken: 39%
Norm Coleman: 38%
Dean Barkley: 22%
James Niemackl: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Elsewhere
I predict a very narrow win for BJ Lawson, the biggest victory the Ron Paul movement will get this year.
Which Libertarians?
Obama wins with a landslide (300 plus electoral votes). Barr and Nader both get about 1 million votes. McKinney and Bladwin get about 500,000 votes each.
Democrats get 56- 58 senate seats and a bigger majority in Congress.
The Green Party wins 2-4 state legislator seats, the Liberarians win 3-5.
Obama wins, and the GOP is determined to paint Dems as being anti-Americans who support government that is way too small.
All “Ron Paul Republicans” will lose. Even though I would like to see Bj Lawson win, it won’t happen. He is probably the best of them. Some of the others are downright embarrassing. I am not counting RP endorsed incumbents. I am talking about the new “movement.”
As for the POTUS:
Obama 51.46% 318 electoral
McCain 47.31 220
Nader 0.54
Barr 0.42
Baldwin 0.14
McKinney 0.08
Paul 0.03
Keyes 0.01
All Others 0.01
I predict Obama in a landslide, a Democratic super majority, The Great Depression part II, and The New Deal part II.
Surprise win for McCain by 10-15 electoral votes.
Barr & Nader in a dead heat for 3rd with approx 1% and 1 million votes each. Let’s give it to Barr by a nose.
Baldwin 4th with 0.5% ish and McKinney a DISTANT 5th.
“Meet the new boss, same as the old boss…”
Obama wins in a 300+ EC landslide.
We see the beginnings of inter-party civil war in the GOP.
Third party challengers:
3rd place: Ralph Nader (850,000 to 1.5 million votes)
4th place: Bob Barr (500,000 to 750,000 votes)
5th place: Chuck Baldwin (200,000 to 300,000 votes)
6th place: Cynthia McKinney (150,000 to 200,000 votes)
I predict the entire Liberty Committee (Ron Paul’s caucus) will be re-elected as well as two new members: Tom McClintock (CA-4) by about 3%, and an extremely narrow win by BJ Lawson in NC-4.
I also predict MASS Prop. 1 will pass, as well as CA’s 8th prop and Michigan’s Legalized Marijuana props will all pass.
My prediction?…. WE GET SCREWED!
Richard,
6 Progressives and Rick Jore?
Can you name the specific guys to watch in the Green Party, Libertarian Party, Constitution Party, Progressives, etc.
Which ones, which parties in which states?
There are now 7 minor party state legislators. I predict 10, 11 or 12 after tomorrow.
Epic fail for third parties.
They really need to take themselves in a new direction. What they’re doing now is not working.
Well, yes, but do you have any opinions, on, say, how many votes each of the other candidates or parties is like to get, which initiatives you think will pass and whether it will be close, local races, etc?
Bob Barr in a landslide!
Seriously? Overwhelming Obama victory with increased democratic majorities. Overall, same boss as the old boss onethings settle down.