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John Monds May Force Runoff in GA Gubernatorial Race

From the Savannah Morning News:

In the latest InsiderAdvantage Georgia survey, [Republican Nathan] Deal had 45 percent and [Democrat Roy] Barnes had 41 percent. Libertarian John Monds had 5 percent; the other respondents were undecided.

The margin of error for the survey was 4 percent, so Deal and Barnes are statistically about even.

Such numbers suggest a runoff is “quite conceivable” said Robert Eisinger, a political science professor at the Savannah College of Art and Design.

It will remain so, said Eisinger, also dean of the School of Liberal Arts at SCAD, “even if the Libertarian candidate gets just 2 or 3 percent and the race remains close.”

Emory University political science professor Merle Black agreed, citing the 2008 Senate race, when Libertarian Allen Buckley drew 3.4 percent.

But to win or force a runoff, Black said, Barnes must do better among white voters. In recent polls, his percentage has ranged from the high 20s to about 30.

But while acknowledging a runoff is possible, other experts said it’s not likely.

“I would say a less than 50-50 chance,” said Charles Bullock, a University of Georgia political science professor.

Bullock said the candidacy of soon-to-be President Barack Obama swelled turnout among Democratic-leaning black voters and young people in 2008 and gave Martin a big boost.

“That won’t happen this year,” Bullock said.

For the same reason, InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery said, a runoff is a possibility, but “not a strong possibility.”

A runoff is unlikely in the Senate race. Even though Libertarian Chuck Donovan in that race is polling higher than Monds at 7%, the Republican is an incumbent with a significant lead over the Democrat.

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  1. Matt Cholko Matt Cholko August 21, 2010

    Anderson’s ad in the LP News sometime around April/May stated that he would spend $100k. I’m pretty certain of it, as I had an e-mail conversation with him after seeing his ad. If you heard $50k after that, maybe he’s scaled things back.

  2. Danny S Danny S August 21, 2010

    @Matt, I heard a few months ago he pledged 50k to his campaign, but now it is 100k? wow

    I cant think of any Libertarians planning to run tv ads though off the top of my head other than Anderson.

  3. Matt Cholko Matt Cholko August 21, 2010

    I think a candidate for Congress, by the name of John Anderson or something similar, out of Ohio, told me he was running TV ads prior to the LPUS convention. He’s the one who took out an ad in LP News stating that he would donate $100,000 to his own campaign, and asking for donations.

  4. Doug Craig Doug Craig August 21, 2010

    I also want to point out to my coffee table Libertarians. You get lots of press when you are working your campaigns.

    Does anybody know if we have any Libertarian running tv ads yet. that is our next goal here in the next few weeks

  5. Doug Craig Doug Craig August 21, 2010

    it is 50 plus one to win but they had changed it for about 4 years to 45%. I am glad that they changed it back to 50 plus 1. I t gives us some pull

  6. George Phillies George Phillies August 21, 2010

    In other runoff news, given that the Republicans have an internal third party, the Tea Party, one of the lowers in the Washington Senate race, Mr. Didier, has announced he will not endorse the Republican winner in the primary unless the Republican will “Introduce the “Sanctity of Life” Act that U.S. Rep. Ron Paul introduced in the House. The bill would allow local jurisdictions to pass anti-abortion laws without interference from federal courts.”

    Such a promise from the Republican winner would be political suicide.

    In similar news, another Republican Senate candidate has been hit with the allegation from a local news source that he is not telling the truth about having been graduated from High School.

    Then there is the Republican Senate candidate who spoke highly about restoring liquor prohibition, in a state where alcohol is a really major business.

    Third Parties — they’re not just outside the Democrats and Republicans any more.

  7. George Phillies George Phillies August 21, 2010

    It might be effective for Georgia Libertarians to emphasize — if the newspaper report is accurate — that the runoff rule is at 50% and not 45%. I distinctly remember claims at one time — I did not pursue their accuracy — that the Georgia runoff rule had been changed to a 45% plurality rather than a 50% majority.

    Also, from my point of view it is disadvantageous to have our candidates who are knocked out of the runoff — we hope this will be one of Mr. Monds’ opponents, though the odds seem weak –turn around and endorse one of the surviving candidates, especially when it is routinely the surviving candidate of the same party.

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