NH: Libertarian Babiarz polling 2%

Concord Monitor:

In the final WMUR/UNH election poll, 49 percent of likely voters say they will vote for Lynch, 41 percent prefer Stephen, 2 percent favor Libertarian John Babiarz, 1 percent prefer some other candidate, and 7 percent are undecided.

The poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which interviewed 885 randomly selected New Hampshire likely voters between Oct. 27 and Oct. 31. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percent.

Babiarz needs 4% to get ballot access for the Libertarian Party in 2012.

According to the Libertarian Donors Club, “the New Hampshire LP has won ballot status here before, at 3%, so the big-party legislature raised the requirement to 4%.”

The other states where the Libertarian Party performance today will determine 2012 ballot access: Illinois, where they need 5% in any statewide race; New York, where they need 50,000 votes for gubernatorial candidate Warren Redlich; and Iowa, where they need 2% for gubernatorial candidate Eric Cooper.

New York and Illinois are among the highest populated US states, New York is a national and world media capital, and both require large numbers of signatures within a short time frame to get on the ballot for parties that fail to qualify through vote totals. Iowa and New Hampshire are notable for being the two earliest contests of the major parties’ presidential primaries.

5 thoughts on “NH: Libertarian Babiarz polling 2%

  1. Be Rational

    So, the big question will be: can Babiarz pick up another 2% in the last few days with his TV and radio spots airing in the last days before the election and after this poll?

  2. Be Rational

    In Illinois there are two good shots at the 5% among several statewide LP candidates, but it’s a big state and that’s a lot of votes. These races, like all the others mentioned, were just too underfunded to actually reach enough voters to get the votes.

    In Iowa, Eric Cooper was already at 2% when included in polls taken before he began running targeted radio spots. Can he hold on to that 2%?

    Warren Redlich has a combination of TV spots, radio spots, but mostly earned media coverage following his winning debate performance. Polls and pundits predicting 4 or 5% total third party vote. The LP will need 1/3 or more of those votes.

  3. Steve

    Dr. Cooper has gotten an unprecedented level of media coverage for Libertarian Party of Iowa , lets just hope that combined with the expected landslide for Iowa Republicans negating the wasted vote argument will get enough people to make the right choice. Our biggest problem might be the 3% of voters telling pollsters they’ll vote for the independent candidate who continues to claim that his victory is imminent, sopping up protest votes with his vanity campaign.

  4. AroundtheblockAFT

    Not to throw cold water on things but do LP candidates ever do better than the final poll?
    I’m familiar with a few races, one of which was polling 8% in final poll and got around 4% when the votes were counted.

    Please, all of you touting how “well” someone looks like they are doing…get back to us later this week with final results vs. final poll.

  5. Steve

    BTW, I didn’t have time to send this as a full post, but here is Cooper’s media coverage: http://www.coopersmallergovernment.com/media-coverage

    Regardless of whether he wins ballot access or not, that’s more than I can remember any Iowa Libertarian getting. And the 4 LP candidates I get to vote for today are more than the party has had in the short time I’ve been a member. Plus there are 2 LP state legislative races in the Iowa City/University of Iowa area that are L vs. D, so the party could potentially push out the R’s as the 2nd party in that area.

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