Paulie Frankel: Probably Good News for Us…

http://www.ballot-access.org/2014/01/republican-national-committee-approves-presidential-nomination-changes/

Republican National Committee Approves Presidential Nomination Changes
Published on January 24, 2014,

On January 24, the Republican National Committee approved the changes in the presidential nominating process that the party’s Rules Committees had adopted the day before. See this story. The date of the 2016 national convention isn’t set yet, but the article suggests it is most likely to be in June 2016.

Additionally, they have another proposed rule that requires all their delegates to be chosen at least 45 days before the convention (so no later than early May if it’s at the end of June, or even by early April if it’s at the beginning of June).

The reason this is probably good for us is that in 2008 and 2012 we faced the problem of a lot of libertarians who thought Ron Paul would be the Republican nominee up until their convention. Since their convention was around Labor Day, that left little time to bring people over to the LP and organize them before the election. In 2012 I believe we did capture the support of most (or at least many) Ron Paul supporters, but by then there was very little time to try to organize and activate them into active supporters and organize the campaign.

In 2016 we are likely to see the same dynamic with Rand Paul, with libertarians being drawn to support him until he is eliminated. So, it’s good for us if that elimination takes place earlier. To our advantage, as compared with Ron Paul, Rand Paul is less libertarian; to our disadvantage, he seems less obviously non-viable as a GOP nominee (although I don’t believe he will actually win their presidential nomination in 2016), thus will probably draw more support. And unlike Ron Paul, I think he will be actively campaigning for whoever the Republicans do nominate during the general election. I think it’s even plausible that they may run him for VP, so we need to be prepared for that.

However, the silver linings are that he will (probably) be eliminated earlier than Ron Paul was either time, that he is less libertarian than Ron Paul and thus less attractive to libertarians from that standpoint, and that he is less likely to have as much in the way of a write-in movement, since he will probably be actively discouraging it.

Another plus for us is that, as compared to Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton is unlikely to draw any significant libertarian support. On the other hand, she comes with long-standing rabid negatives among many conservatives and libertarians, so that will intensify the negative pressure to go for the Republicans in order to keep her out. Doubly so with Rand Paul likely to be out there actively campaigning making that point and possibly on the Republican ticket as a VP candidate himself.

Anything we can do between now and then to paint the establishment Republicans as equally bad and unlibertarian as Hillary and the Democrats will help us hold up against that pressure. As for Rand Paul we have to balance criticizing him so that our potential supporters are less apt to go over to him instead on one hand and not being overly critical of him so that we don’t burn bridges and can bring more of his supporters over to us once he is out.

Given how bad Democrats have been on peace and civil liberties these last few years while they have held the white house, we should have at least some opening to go after some of their supporters who care about those issues more than about economics on those grounds. This may be more difficult if Bernie Sanders or someone else outside the duopoly mounts a high profile run from the left.

Lastly we need to be prepared for the prospect of Bloomberg or some similar “centrist” running a well-financed independent/third party campaign and mopping up much of the general dissatisfaction with the duopoly that may otherwise go to us.

Since conservatives greatly fear and loathe Hillary Clinton, I don’t think we will have any luck trying to run to the right in the likely dynamics of 2016. It’s more likely that we will have the ability to peel away defectors from the left over the Democrats’ terrible peace and civil liberties record under Obama, especially if there is not a strong left independent ticket e.g. Sanders.