Found in Breitbart
By Robert Wilde
January 5, 2015
Fox News contributor and Democratic pollster Pat Caddell told Breitbart News Executive Chairman Stephen K. Bannon that up to one-third of Republicans are ready to call it quits as members of the GOP.
The alienation among Republican voters is so high,” says Caddell, that conservatively “a quarter to one-third of the Republican party are hanging by a thread from bolting.” Caddell argues that GOP voters’ attitudes are “so anti-establishment,” and they give Republican leadership poor ratings.
The revelation comes on the heels of polling data supervised by Caddell Associates and reported on Friday by Breitbart News that a stupefying 60% of Republicans who voted in the November elections either definitely or probably want someone other than Ohio Congressman John Boehner to be the Speaker of the House.
Caddell, who sharpened his teeth as a political consultant and pollster for President Jimmy Carter in 1976, has developed a reputation for being a straight shooting analyst, often criticized by his own party for predicting negative outcomes for Democrats.
His latest poll shows that Republican voters are reaching a tipping point and may have had enough of GOP lawmakers’ feckless leadership and constant submission to President Obama’s policies.
A frequent guest on the Breitbart News Sunday Sirius XM Patriot radio program on channel 125, Caddell said that he will be releasing a new survey on Monday of 600 Republican identifiers or independents who voted Republican in November. In what Caddell refers to as a “stunner,” only 16% want “both” Boehner and imminent Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to be their leaders.
Moreover, according to the survey, two-thirds agreed with the statement that “John Boehner has been ineffective in opposing Obama.”
Another stunner for Caddell was when voters were asked, “Is John Boehner for average Americans in his heart, rather than for special interests?” Only 44% said yes, and 43% said no. “We’re talking about the base. These are not independents that are leaning Democrat, and there are no Democrats in the survey,” the pollster noted in astonishment.
Good point about the CPNYS/Hoffman.
The Conservative Party would have won that special election in NY if the Republican hadn’t decided to endorse the Democrat. It was a great illustration of people’s priorities. The duopoly is far more important to them than any actual policy positions.
Yeah, it’s this annoying option here that I have to watch out for when I’m posting.
Losty, you could do a much better job as a troll.
I knew it was you, but thanks for clearing that up for everyone else. I hadn’t thought about it.
Didn’t know that. Nevertheless, I would have expected more just on the basis of all the news coverage, name recognition, money, etc., even if he wasn’t able to personally actively campaign.
That’s another interesting factoid I should remember. How did those states compare in electoral votes?
Cody,
“In the meantime, I wouldn’t take a Breitbart article like this seriously”
You could have stopped there, and removed the Like This.
In the meantime, I wouldn’t take a Breitbart article like this seriously; the GOP is still too internally strong to break apart just yet, plus the same news site overly hyped up the chances & momentum that Joe Carr had in the Tennessee GOP primary, never mind he got clobbered in it and his attempts to take over the Tennessee GOP itself.
Apparently I posted under my WordPress name.
Pat Buchanan probably would have done better in 2000, but he got very ill at the beginning of the general election campaign season. Even as it was, he held the balance of power between Bush and Gore in 4 states, and Gore carried all 4 with a plurality. Nader only held the balance of power in two states carried by Bush. If Gore had been inaugurated president, Buchanan would have had heaps of hatred heaped on his head, just as Nader actually did.
If they bolt they lose access to power with Boehner and McConnell. The only real success was Rick Jore in Montana that actually won something leaving R’s and going to CP. That was Montana legislature. Even Hoffman(?) in New York special election came up short with the Conservative Party banner a few years back. He had a lot going for him weak R and D and didn’t make it.
A few years ago, some pollster claimed that most Independents in California were former Republicans — who continued voting Republican despite re-registering Independent.
The California GOP was getting the SAME percentage of votes, despite a large chunk of voters dropping their GOP registration in favor of going independent. They apparently “left” as a protest, but then voted for what they still regarded as “the lesser evil.”
I would also add independents, but not NLR because it seems it is the more extreme Republicans who are grumbling as opposed to the more moderate ones. Jill, would you be OK with the change in categories? I think 3PG should only be for posts that cover all alt parties.
I likewise never went back to the Democrats after leaving them in the early 1990s, but we’re the exceptions. A lot more of these people grumble but stay put, or leave and then go back.
“I bolted the Republican Party in 2002, when Bush’s warmongering ways became apparent. Many women fled; we were called “soccer moms”.
I never looked back.”
I was raised in a Republican family, my mother & father were both arch-conservatives, although I would later learn that my mom was far more socially tolerant than she let on. My first few times voting I voted straight Republican, because I had been trained that that was the right thing to do, even though I was uncomfortable with their rhetoric on several issues, especially gay rights as I was finally admitting to myself & the world that I was a gay man. I didn’t register as a Republican though, I’ve always been an independent.
2008 was my awakening. After John McCain was nominated, I began to look for a party that was closer to my values. I found the Libertarian Party. I became an avid Bob Barr supporter, proudly walking around with my little Barr ’08 button & enjoying being the outcast. In the end, as I did more research (more than I had ever done) I realized Barr wasn’t the man for me either & ended up voting for Ralph Nader for president, but I stuck with the LP & voted for them in down ticket races.
I did briefly join the LP, but after seeing them squander money on buildings & LNC meetings that were little more than bitch-fests about bylaws I decided to keep my money & be an independent, though still a Libertarian at heart. As I’ve said, I will never vote for another Democrat or Republican (aside from local races, our coroner does a good job) until we have five strong political parties, each with at least one representative and/or senator in congress.
I bolted the Republican Party in 2002, when Bush’s warmongering ways became apparent. Many women fled; we were called “soccer moms”.
I never looked back.
Some of them do bolt at times, but whether they’ll ever do it in critical mass and all in the same direction is a separate question.
People always answer positively about third parties in the abstract, in much higher numbers than they ever actually vote (or join) third-parties. cf. the semi-regular Gallup question that finds 55-60% ‘yes’ answers for “the two-party system is so unrepresentative that a third major party is needed”.
To state the obvious, maybe one in ten of those, at best, actually voted for a non-D/R for any office in 2014. I’d expect a similar rate among this “one-third of Republicans”. These aren’t people who actually want to leave the GOP, they’re folks who want more of their kind of Republicans to win GOP primaries, and think “leaving for a third party” is a (hollow) threat that will help make that happen.
It’s possible, but the more likely explanation is that these people have unrealistic expectations when they bolt and then reality slaps them like a cold fish in the face.
“MP – don’t forget Pat and the Reform Party also.”
I’m convinced that Pat Buchanan’s run was a scheme by the duopoly to weaken the Reform Party. It worked.
Same principle. Despite the mass amounts of campaign welfare, and all his friends in journalism lavishing attention on him, his party having a sitting governor, all the name recognition he had from decades in TV and print journalism/editorializing and politics, his political connections, his Republican primary run support, the percentages racked up by Perot, etc., etc., Buchanan barely beat Harry Browne and slinked back to the NSGOP with his tail betwee his legs.
MP – don’t forget Pat and the Reform Party also.
See several comments above as to why that hasn’t been happening, and may not happen despite the numbers pointed out in the article.
They’re generally somewhere between the LP and CP on social issues, aligned with neither one on foreign policy, and will have issues with lack of overnight success and with being accused of electing Democrats regardless of what other vehicle they bolt the NSGOP for if any. That’s why actual defections tend to be limited in scope and short lived no matter how wide spread the grumbling is.
If the Republican social reactionaries all flock to whatever, it becomes a semimajor party. There is some evidence that they are the majority wing of the Republican party, but the other sides have tons of money to cancel the raw numbers.
We have been there and done that. See Barr, Root et al. Most of them leave after a short stint because the rest of us are less open armed in our welcome, because we don’t become a major party overnight, etc. As for the Tea Parties, I’ve seen them in action all over the country. A lot of them are social conservatives and neocons, not only in the South. Don’t forget, I travel and work in politics for a living, and go to all kinds of public events as part of my job as well as as a hobby.
“With some luck the social reactionaries will flock to one of the Christian nationalist parties.”
– and further alienate it from the voting mainstream.
“They won’t like the social liberalism and non-interventionism in the LP either. Dirty politics and religious fanaticism? That should make them feel right at home, almost like they never left.”
Wrong- except for the southern Tea Partiers, many of the TP crowd are not that socially conservative, and plenty would shy away from the CP’s rhetoric on pornography, homosexuality, etc. since it would be too extreme for their taste.
Plus many would find themselves at home in the LP since the conservative, right-leaning elements in your party would certainly welcome them with open arms.
They will probably grumble and stay put, as usual. Actually starting a party and getting on the ballot, or even taking over an existing one, is too much hard work.
Maybe it will happen eventually. Or not.
Some of them come over to the LP or the CP from time to time – Barr, Root, etc. They generally go back after their new parties don’t take off as quickly as they want them to, or after they fail to completely take over and drive out the existing members they are not fully comfortable with, or after enough of their Republican friends accuse them of spoiling elections and electing Democrats or some combination thereof.
I would say the disaffected Republicans are, by and large, not likely to come to the LP, or the CP, but the LP is less likely – for exactly the reasons given above as to why they would go to the LP. Let’s consider why they’re upset. There are some legitimate policy disagreements, but there’s a large dose of tactical disagreement. Bohner enlarged his majority – which means he can cut off his right wing and still have votes to pass legislation that allows governance to take place. They’re mad at him because he intends to govern, not put on an ideological show.
McConnell now finds himself, suddenly, in the position of needing to govern as well. He can’t just make a mess and let the Democrats clean it up. Being in the opposition is one thing; now that he’s running the majority party it’s his job to actually govern as well.
Both of these people are perfectly content with that role – they’re both old-style, deal-making politicians who understand log-rolling and compromise. The people in this article prefer ideological showing off, putting on big shows that actually don’t change policy, to the sort of politics these two represent. (Of course, it’s absolutely ludicrous that the response to Ted Cruz was “don’t you dare make me work at night!” but that’s another story.)
They’re not going to bolt to an established small party. They’re going to either go to one that is purely ideological, or start their own, or call themselves “independent” while still voting Republican.
I hope to see this fracture in the LP too. It will mean we’re in a position to govern.
Is George P. Bush eligible yet? We could be stuck in the Bushes for many generations….
With some luck the social reactionaries will flock to one of the Christian nationalist parties.
One might also say that this is about two new emerging third parties one being wherever these people go, and the other being the Republicans. I think it will take a while, perhaps 2020-2024.
Jeb Bush apparently tried focus groups of sympathetic people. His campaign was widely viewed as a bad joke. He did not, however, propose the obvious Bush-Bush ticket, which would recall that his dad is still Constitutionally eligible to serve another term in the White House.
They won’t like the social liberalism and non-interventionism in the LP either. Dirty politics and religious fanaticism? That should make them feel right at home, almost like they never left.
I’ve heard this story about potential GOP fracturing so many times before in the past, that I regard it as nothing but yellow journalism now.
But even if it actually did happen, the LP will benefit the most in such a scenario, since the typical tea party types that go third party will flock to the most organized and well-established alternative one out there, which is the LP.
The CP is weaker and less viable then it used to be, and once such newcomers find out about the dirty internal politics and religious fanaticism that dwells inside it, they will certainly reevaluate remaining as a member real quick.
Mitt, Jeb…what else is missing? How about another McCain run? Sarah Palin? Dan Quayle? I think Huckabee and/or Santorum will be running. This could get very, very ugly and very, very dumb in a hurry. I’m stocking up on absinthe to prepare myself.
Jed: I think we can do an occassional article like this about establishment parties collapsing, perhaps with an introductory blurb about the likely beneficiaries outside the duopoly. I wouldn’t want to do it too often, but it seems entirely in bounds to me.
In the category of “Let’s All Watch the Republican Party Implode”, there’s this:
http://benswann.com/white-house-2016-mitt-romney-just-made-a-major-announcement/
I don’t think they are likely to go to the Greens or the Socialists either. Maybe LP, CP, and/or Right Wing Minor Parties would be the classifications I would suggest.
I probably wouldn’t have posted it if the percentage hadn’t been so high. It seemed like something our group here might be interested in, and once in a while I walk off the beaten path a bit. 🙂
Now I feel bad because I told someone I couldn’t post this because it wasn’t third party related.
The reason I believe this article is related to third parties is that there are a whole lot of unhappy Republicans who might be looking for a new political home–and I doubt if it will be the Democratic Party.