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A report provided to IPR by former LNC Chair and current Americans Deserve Better (#votefortheadults) SuperPAC spokesperson Geoff Neale, reports an approximate doubling of the Gary Johnson poll numbers as a result of their media campaign in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District. The Patterson & Company polling operation document appears to show a significant impact as a result of the campaign (as there is no possible “control group” market, and other outside influences are also likely to have impacted the results over time, a purely causal relationship cannot be perfectly discerned). The analysis provided by Patterson & Company concludes:
“After two weeks of advertising on broadcast television, cable television, radio and online, we about doubled the Johnson/Weld vote share from a starting point of 5.5% on August 3 to 10.6% on August 29. All of the other tickets on the ballot showed negative movement during the same period and the number of undecided voters fell as well. Also, while Johnson/Weld supporters are more heavily comprised of registered Republicans in this district (approximately 50%), they have a substantial number of Democrat and Independent supporters as well. In fact, Hillary Clinton’s decline in support throughout our ad buy outpaced that of Trump.
“Further analysis revealed that the Johnson/Weld ticket received the lion’s share of voters who changed their vote preference over the period of our test marketing. This is a fairly remarkable finding given the fact that neither Johnson nor Weld appeared in the district until the final day of our ad campaign, and as such received very little earned media coverage compared to Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton over the same period. [NOTE: While coordination between the Johnson/Weld Campaign and independent Super PAC’s is forbidden, moving forward it is important that the campaign recognize where outside groups are spending on behalf of the ticket and prioritize the candidates’ schedules accordingly. This approach has a dual benefit; personal appearances increase the effectiveness of paid advertising, and paid advertising increases earned media opportunities for candidates on the ground.]”
Prior IPR coverage, including links to the video and radio ads used by the SuperPac is available HERE.
IPR readers wishing to support the Americans Deserve Better SuperPAC may do so by directing their donations to the Americans Deserve Better PAC, PO Box 49942, Austin, TX 78765. (Please note the federal law requirement that the PAC ask for your occupation and your employer.) Or go to www.VotefortheAdults.com or to the direct donation page HERE.
The Patterson & Company Polling Summary document can be read HERE. (Note: Although marked CONFIDENTIAL by Patterson & Company, IPR has received permission to include it here as a public document at the request of the Americans Deserve Better PAC.)