Vermin Supreme wins New Hampshire LP Primary

Performance artist/activist Vermin Supreme won the New Hampshire’s LP convention’s presidential preference poll this past Saturday evening. Kim Ruff was runner-up. Other notable include Jacob Hornberger, who finished 6th, and recent entry, Lincoln Chafee, who finished a distant 10th. NOTA managed a respectable 5th place finish. It remains to be seen if Vermin Supreme can ride of a steady wave of LP membership discontent with the prospect of a 4th straight shiny badge coronation to make things interesting in Austin.

32 thoughts on “Vermin Supreme wins New Hampshire LP Primary

  1. George Phillies

    I inquired of State Chair Darryl Perry. He personally counted the ballots. He assures me that there was no way to tell which of them were from people who listened to the debate and which of them were mailed in.

    The significance of this remark will by and by be apparent.

  2. Jonathan Makeley

    There appears to be a problem with the link. It just sends me to the same article.

  3. Jim

    As much as I’m not convinced Vermin Supreme is the best choice to advance libertarianism or the LP, I honestly hope the prospect of appearing on the ballot with him is giving Republicans and Democrats fits.

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Hornberger and Chafee were both write-in candidates and not listed on the ballot.

    Using the results posted by Paulie in the other thread and the list of candidates who filed for the primary provided by the NH LP, the results were:

    On the ballot:

    26 Vermin Supreme
    22 Kim Ruff
    17 Jo Jorgensen
    13 Dan Behrman
    13 NOTA
    8 Sam Robb
    6 Arvin Vohra
    0 Ken Armstrong
    0 Keenan Wallace Dunham
    0 Erik Gerhardt
    0 Arlen Lawson Wright

    Write-ins:

    9 Jacob Hornberger
    6 Mark Whitney
    4 Lincoln Chafee
    3 Justin Amash
    1 Max Abramson
    1 Adam Kokesh
    1 Nick Sarwark
    1 Tom Napp
    1 Joe Bishop Henchman
    1 Straw Poll

  4. George Phillies

    For unclear reasons, Jim, your source on the votes was incomplete. The actual total was

    26 Vermin Supreme
    22 Kim Ruff
    17 Jo Jorgensen
    13 Dan Behrman
    13 NOTA
    9 – Jacob Hornberger
    8 Sam Robb
    6 Arvin Vohra
    6 Mark Whitney
    4 Lincoln Chaffee
    16 – Scatter under 10%

    Write-ins:

    9 Jacob Hornberger
    6 Mark Whitney
    4 Lincoln Chafee

  5. Root's Teeth Are Awesome

    Tom Napp received 1 write-in? Do you suppose the voter meant Thomas Knapp?

  6. Thomas Knapp

    My takeaways from this are:

    1. Vermin Supreme is running a strong campaign, especially in New Hampshire.

    2. It’s hard to extract much information as to likely future outcomes for several reasons, the biggest one being that some of the candidates entered late enough to not appear on the mailed ballots.

  7. Chris Powell

    I’m given to understand that LPNH leadership has been very friendly to Supreme and unfriendly to the contender from New Hampshire, Max Abramson. Abramson was not listed on the official ballot. LPNH insists they e-mailed him and he insists they did not but the fact is that Abramson should have been paying attention and been aware and LPNH should have made more effort than just sending an e-mail to make sure he was on their ballot, if nothing else to ensure that there was no appearance of bias.
    With the fact that an absurdist candidate won, a home-state candidate who is the only individual running who currently holds an elected office was not on the official ballot, a withdrawn candidate finished second, and only 44 individuals voted, I have a hard time believing this primary really tells us much of anything.

  8. George Dance

    I posted this on facebook today; alas, it was too long for twitter.

    The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire recently held a “ranked choice” preference vote for 2020 presidential nominee; but the results show only that they don’t know how to count a “ranked choice” ballot. “According to the party’s announcement, 44 votes were cast…. Of those, 26 voted for Vermin Supreme. The next highest was 22 voting for Kim Ruff. Jo Jorgensen got 17 votes, Dan “Taxation is Theft” Behrman got 13. Jacob Hornberger got 9, NOTA got 13 (which stands for None of the Above), Sam Robb got 8 votes, Arvin Vohra got 6, Mark Whitney got 6, Lincoln Chafee got 4, and then 16 got under 10 percent of the votes and weren’t listed.” That makes 144 votes, or 100 more than were cast. It looks like the scrutineers simply counted every ranking filled out for a candidate – first choice, second choice, last choice, whatever – as one vote.

  9. George Dance

    George Phillies: “I inquired of State Chair Darryl Perry. He personally counted the ballots. ”

    Did he say whether the ballots are available for a ‘recount’ (or, as I’d put it, a proper count)?

  10. dL Post author

    The Libertarian Party of New Hampshire recently held a “ranked choice” preference vote

    I thought 44/110 was misprint. Vote tally=140. If the total ballots actually submitted were only 44, and the voting method was indeed some form of ranked choice, it wasn’t tallied correctly.

  11. George Dance

    Thanks, Pauli. i’ve been digging, and asking questions. According to the Polk Co. (Iowa) LP site’s story on the election (the only one I’ve found that mentions the methodology): “The Bucklin Method Ballot was used. People voting made their first and second choices and used Approval Voting for other candidates.”
    In the Bucklin method, like with IRV, you count everyone’s first choice, and if no one gets a majority, you move to a second round; however, with the Bucklin method, in the second round you count all the first-place choices plus all the second-place choices; in the third round, you count all first, second, and third choices; etc.

    There had to be at least 3 ballots, since the total votes were over 88; and they could have been 3 ballots, even if there were more than 132 votes, on the third round if the Polk co. story is correct. So that’s look like what happened; all first-place choices, all second-place choices, and all Approvals, were counted as one vote each, equally. Everyone who voted only for a first choice got one vote, everyone who voted for a first and second choices got 2, and everyone who approved a candidate got an additional vote per approval.

    What a crappy system! Someone could win a majority while being no one’s first choice, and the second choice of only a minority, provided he got enough Approval preferences.

    I’m still asking questions, over at the NH facebook page, but this looks like what happened.

  12. George Dance

    i’ve been digging, and asking questions. According to the Polk Co. (Iowa) LP site’s story on the election (the only one I’ve found that mentions the methodology): “The Bucklin Method Ballot was used. People voting made their first and second choices and used Approval Voting for other candidates.”
    In the Bucklin method, like with IRV, you count everyone’s first choice, and if no one gets a majority, you move to a second round; however, with the Bucklin method, in the second round you count all the first-place choices plus all the second-place choices; in the third round, you count all first, second, and third choices; etc.

    There had to be at least 3 ballots, since the total votes were over 88; and they could have been 3 ballots, even if there were more than 132 votes, on the third round if the Polk co. story is correct. So that’s look like what happened; all first-place choices, all second-place choices, and all Approvals, were counted as one vote each, equally. Everyone who voted only for a first choice got one vote, everyone who voted for a first and second choices got 2, and everyone who approved a candidate got an additional vote per approval.

    What a crappy system! Someone could win a majority while being no one’s first choice, and the second choice of only a minority, provided he got enough Approval preferences.

    I’m still asking questions, over at the NH facebook page, but this looks like what happened.

  13. George Dance

    According to the LPNH website, “The Bucklin Method Ballot will be used. Delegates will choose their first and second choices, and use Approval Voting for subsequent candidates.” That means that, if there were more than three rounds (which there were, as there were more than 88 ‘votes’), all first choices, second choices, and approvals were counted equally as one vote each.

  14. George Dance

    My article on the primary has been published on Nolan Chart, and has made its appearance on Google News. Alas, the spamfilter has foiled my attempt to give a link; so anyone wishing to read it will have to search for it.

    Strange doings in New Hampshire
    In the New Hampshire Libertarian primary, a flawed voting system led to the selection of a flawed – possibly the most flawed – candidate.

  15. dL Post author

    Strange doing in New Hampshire

    a flawed voting system led to the selection of a flawed candidate

    You are simply using an outcome you don’t like to discredit the voting tabulation method.

    Libertarians’ reaction to the Supreme victory on social media – mainly shock and dismay – confirms my suspicion.

    Not the libertarians I follow on social media.

    As economist Bryan Caplan has argued, any voting process will contain flaws

    That would actually be Kenneth Arrow by way of the Arrow Impossibility Theorem. Caplan’s thesis, Rational Irrationality, says nothing about the impossibility of ranked voting systems to reflect community-wide preferences. Caplan simply argues that bad outcomes accurately reflect voter intentions because it is instrumentally rational for voters to be dipshits.

    Btw, I noticed you’ve been on a 3 year hiatus from nolan chart. Rather than take pot shots at Vermin Supreme, one might think you would have instead used the occasion to compose a mea culpa on just how wrong you were RE: libertarianism and the GOP.

  16. George Dance

    dl – “Btw, I noticed you’ve been on a 3 year hiatus from nolan chart.”

    Not for the first time; I have my own blog for when I want to write about politics.

    “Rather than take pot shots at Vermin Supreme, one might think you would have instead used the occasion to compose a mea culpa on just how wrong you were RE: libertarianism and the GOP.”

    If you want that, you’ll have to tell me what I was wrong about, and convince me that I was wrong about it.

  17. George Phillies

    Readers interested in more, revealing discussion of this vote may wish to read Mark Whitney’s page on Facebook, in particular his January 12 at 12:13 PM post and the comments, which show where some of the interpretations arise.

  18. dL Post author

    If you want that, you’ll have to tell me what I was wrong about, and convince me that I was wrong about it.

    https://www.nolanchart.com/article9940-gary-johnson-and-libertarian-republicans-html

    You claimed “By far the largest number of libertarians vote for the Republican Party” and that “libertarians in the GOP outnumber those in the Libertarian Party.” Given:
    (1) Trump’s approval rating is 95% among republicans
    (2) Trump is the best living example of an Ayn Rand villain that has ever pranced on the stage
    (3) the 5% holdouts assuredly being Bill Kristol neocon never trumpists

    it is clear there were never any libertarians in the GOP. Conservative fusionism is a fraud. And it’s not even up for any debate. Obvious empirical fact.

  19. George Dance

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    You claimed “By far the largest number of libertarians vote for the Republican Party””

    I was using info from Cato; the original source is gone, but her’s a representative example: “Libertarians preferredGeorge W. Bush over Al Gore by 72 to 20 percent,but Bush’s margin dropped in 2004 to 59-38 overJohn Kerry.” https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/libertarian-vote

    and that “libertarians in the GOP outnumber those in the Libertarian Party.” “

    Based on other polls, eg.: ” In 2002, libertarians represented 15 percent of Republicans; in 2012, 34 percent.” http://gdspoliticalanimal.blogspot.com/2013/09/cruz-filibuster-reflects-increasing.html

    Given:
    (1) Trump’s approval rating is 95% among republicans
    (2) Trump is the best living example of an Ayn Rand villain that has ever pranced on the stage
    (3) the 5% holdouts assuredly being Bill Kristol neocon never trumpists
    it is clear there were never any libertarians in the GOP. Conservative fusionism is a fraud. And it’s not even up for any debate. Obvious empirical fact.

    I think the Trump support, as in 2016, is mostly driven by Democratphobia; the very thing that’s foiled Libertarian outreach to this group in the past. This year, with Libertarians being driven out of Congress and libertarian ideas being driven out of the conservative movement, I see them as a better target audience than ever.

  20. dL Post author

    http://gdspoliticalanimal.blogspot.com/2013/09/cruz-filibuster-reflects-increasing.html

    Sen. Ted Cruz read excerpts from Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged,

    Cruz must have quoting Wesley Mouch.

    I was using info from Cato

    The David Boaz Gallup libertarian voter was a swing vote across the entire electorate. Surely you weren’t citing Bush’ s polling drop from 4-1(Gore) to 3-2(Kerry) within this demographic as evidence that most libertarians are (partisan) republicans?

    This year, with Libertarians being driven out of Congress

    I wasn’t aware there any libertarians in congress to be driven out…

    libertarian ideas being driven out of the conservative movement,

    Precisely. If fealty to dear leader can banish overnight even the lip service pretense for free markets from conservatism, then there was never any libertarian contingent in conservatism.

  21. Jim

    The 2016 post election survey asked voters who they voted for in the primary and who they voted for in the general.

    https://www.voterstudygroup.org/uploads/reports/Final-Reports/voter-study-group-toplines-crosstabs.pdf
    Page 47. It’s in percentages, but if you do the math based on the primary results, then the major party primary to Johnson general voters work out to:

    704,000 Cruz
    337,000 Rubio
    317,000 Sanders
    180,000 Kasich
    51,000 Hillary
    49,000 Other Republicans
    42,000 Trump
    10,000 Other Democrats

    By party, that’s 1,312,000 Republicans (29% of Johnson’s total) and 378,000 Democrats (8% of Johnson’s total). And overall about 1,690,000 of the 4,489,000 (38%) Johnson voters voted in a major party primary.

    There were 31,184,000 Republican primary voters. 1,312,000 is 4.2% of that.

    Trump’s job approval among Republicans is around 85%. So, yeah, probably 4% are libertarian-ish mostly pre-sellout Paul/Cruz types and the other 11% neocon holdouts.

  22. paulie

    This year, with Libertarians being driven out of Congress and libertarian ideas being driven out of the conservative movement, I see them as a better target audience than ever.

    Fool’s gold, now as ever. The sooner libertarians and Libertarians quit making the mistake that conservatives and Republicans are the more available target market, and start looking for recruits more among young people, those coming from the left, new citizens, those who have been disempowered and discriminated against, the sooner the party and movement will start finally breaking through.

    It just so happens that Vermin Supreme is particularly good at reaching those audiences, as opposed to the ones the LP/LM keeps making the mistake of thinking we should reach at the expense of this larger and more available one.

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