IPR 2020 Libertarian Presidential Preference Poll

By William Saturn on May 12, 2020 10:31 PM

The following is the first official Independent Political Report (IPR) poll concerning the Libertarian Party’s 2020 presidential nomination.

The only presidential candidates included in this poll are Libertarian Congressman Justin Amash and those who are officially recognized on the Libertarian Party website. There is an option to write in another candidate if you choose.

Click here to vote in the poll.

William Saturn

32 Comments

paulie May 16, 2020
All of the above. Publish what you have as soon as you can, start a new round, and if you are able to resolve the issue with survey monkey publish that too.
Thomas Knapp May 16, 2020
I’ll be interested in and grateful for whatever numbers you can get and share. How much work or expense you want to go to to get those numbers is entirely up to you.
William Saturn Post author | May 16, 2020
I have the first 50 responses. Survey Monkey is holding the remaining 350 hostage for $20. They’re not accepting my payment of their ransom.
On past polls I could remove responses and add them all together. Now Survey Monkey limits the number of removals.
If I am unable to get the remaining 350, should I just post the results from the first fifty or should I scrap the whole thing and start over with a better polling service?
William Saturn Post author | May 16, 2020
I’m having trouble with Survey Monkey right now. They’re not accepting my payment to upgrade.
Anthony Dlugos May 16, 2020
wouldn’t change my votes, but…agreed
paulie May 16, 2020
In light of Amash withdrawing I think a round 2 is in order.
NewFederalist May 16, 2020
Results?
William Saturn Post author | May 15, 2020
400 responses received. The poll is now closed.
William Saturn Post author | May 14, 2020
NewFed, Sometime this weekend
paulie May 14, 2020
Libertarian Party of Kentucky
May 11 at 7:07 AM
Putative Delegate polling results (272 ballots cast). We only polled confirmed selected primary delegates, except for those states where the state chair informed us of the primary delegates that would be, but had not yet been, selected. Margin of error with 1046 delegates: +/-5%. Some, but not all, states and, some, but not all delegates agreed to participate, and regionalism is a factor in an LP election. Some agreed to participate late in the process. These factors could have an impact on the accuracy of the polling.
Please note that the LP elects it’s ticket in a multi round ballot, and things happen in that process that cannot be simulated with an instant runoff vote. For instance, defeated candidates can and do make endorsements that sways delegates. And caucuses whip votes. It’s not clear how much of that may or will happen this year with an online convention. Any candidate receiving under 5% of the vote is removed and defeated. And None of the Above (NOTA) is always an option every LP ballot, every round. And, due to the token process, it is possible that not every candidate (particularly those receiving few votes) would be included in a first round ballot. So these results are a very good (and better than any other poll conducted to date since they involve selected primary delegates), but not perfect, approximation of where the races stand. We are releasing the raw data below, but our post below involves some interpreting, in that OPAvote instant runoff does not, for instance, remove candidates who do not achieve the required 5%, and so over-inflates the number of rounds involved. We did not post results for candidates that received no votes.
Round 1:
Justin Amash – 90 – 33.3%
Jacob Hornberger – 57 – 21%
Jo Jorgensen – 44 – 16.6%
Vermin Supreme – 20 – 7.7%
Jim Gray – 18 – 6.6%
Adam Kokesh – 16 – 6.2%
John Monds – 13 – 5%
Arvin Vorha – 4 – 1.5%
Other – 1 – 0.4%
None of the Above – 1 – 0.4%
(as a result, Vorha, Other, and Monds are dropped)
Round 2 (which appears as Round 7 in the data):
Justin Amash – 95 – 35.1%
Jacob Hornberger – 60 – 23.3%
Jo Jorgensen – 50 – 18.5%
Vermin Supreme – 24 – 9.3%
Adam Kokesh – 21 – 7.7%
Jim Gray – 19 – 7%
(Jim Gray is eliminated)
Round 3 (Round 8 in the data)
Amash – 100 – 37.3%
Hornberger – 60 – 22.4%
Jorgensen – 58 – 21.6%
Supreme – 27- 10.1%
Kokesh – 23 – 8.6%
(Adam Kokesh is eliminated)
Round 4 (Round 9 in the data)
Amash – 103 – 39.3%
Jorgensen – 65 – 24.8%
Hornberger – 60 – 22.9%
Supreme – 34 – 13%
(Vermin Supreme is eliminated)
Round 5 (Round 10 in the data)
Amash – 109 – 43.8%
Jorgensen – 76 – 30.5%
Hornberger – 64 – 25.7%
(Jacob Hornberger is eliminated)
Round 6 (Round 11 in the data)
Amash – 134 – 55.6%
Jorgensen – 107 – 44.4%
(Justin Amash is elected)
Vice President:
Round 1
Armstrong – 24 – 8.9%
Behrman – 4 – 1.5%
Cohen – 37 – 13.8%
Ellison – 1- 0.4%
Istan – 1 – 0.4%
Jorgensen – 42 – 15.6%
Kokesh – 11 – 4.1%
McAfee – 8 – 3%
Monds – 14 – 5.2%
Robb – 2- 0.7%
Sarwark – 20 – 7.4%
Sharpe – 93 – 34.6%
Other – 3 – 1.1%
Vorha – 4 -1.5%
NOTA – 5 – 1.9%
(all under 5% and Monds eliminated)
Round 2
(Round 12 in the data)
Sharpe: 108 – 42.4%
Jorgensen – 53 – 20.8%
Cohen – 42 – 16.5%
Armstrong – 27 – 10.6%
Sarwark – 25 – 9.8%
(Sarwark eliminated)
Round 3
(Round 13 in the data)
Sharpe – 116 – 46.2%
Jorgensen – 57 – 22.7%
Cohen – 45 -17.9%
Armstrong – 33 -13.1%
(Armstrong eliminated)
Round 4
(Round 14 in the data)
Sharpe – 134 – 54.5%
Jorgsensen – 62 – 25.2%
Cohen – 50 – 20.3%
(Larry Sharpe elected)
Convention preference (this was done as approval voting, as any floor vote to amend an agenda in a online caucus, or a motion to adjourn to an in person convention would be handled):
All online – 100 (36.76%)
POTUS/VP online, rest in person (including LNC): 130 (47.7%)
All in person – 86 (31.76%)
NewFederalist May 14, 2020
When will the results be released?
Anthony Dlugos May 14, 2020
my answers were:
Ohio
Yes, registered voter
often and comment
20+ year member..may have been some lapses there.
Johnson in 2016
Yes on delegate
Gray/Sharpe
Biden
paulie May 14, 2020
If I was still voting in government elections, I’d vote for Amash or any other plausible LP nominee. I answered honestly (won’t vote). In addition to felony disqualification – I could find a way around that if I really wanted to, as I know enough people in enough states to register in a state where that isn’t an issue – my bigger issue is that I have no state ID. The last one I had was issued in 2000, expired in 2008, and was lost on a bus in 2019. I quit using SSN at that time, and without SSN or state ID there is no way I can actually vote.
The last government election I actually voted in was the 2003 CA gov recall. The only presidential elections I cast a general election ballot in were 1988 (age 16, absentee ballot for my mom, voted Democratic), 1992 and 1996 (Libertarian both times, in person voting). In 2000 I wanted to vote but was moving around too much to even know where to send an absentee ballot to and didn’t realize the bottom stub of a registration form would have been enough to vote in California.
In retrospect I would have voted Libertarian in 1988 as well. The only time I don’t know if I would have, had I been voting, was 2008, and at least in Alabama I probably would have anyway despite my misgivings (I might have considered Green, but was unimpressed when I talked to her in person, and she wasn’t on the Alabama ballot anyway).
Tony From Long Island May 13, 2020
Paulie: ” . . . . . There are enough questions in there to positively identify at least some of the responders . . . .”
Find the Democrat from New York who voted for Gary Johnson in 2016 . . . . 🙂
Anthony Dlugos May 13, 2020
I voted only because TK implored people to on Facebook.
Thomas Knapp May 13, 2020
I believe I saw it referenced in a Facebook post. I’ll be linking it myself at FB and Twitter here pretty soon.
paulie May 13, 2020
I posted it in several FB groups.
William Saturn Post author | May 13, 2020
Poll numbers have spiked up very quickly. Someone must’ve linked the poll somewhere.
paulie May 13, 2020
C=convention, presumably.
Robert the Libertarian May 13, 2020
What the hell is an LNC delegate? I answered no.
Thomas Knapp May 13, 2020
In the past, some delegates have voted for other candidates/parties when they felt the LP shit the bed. It’s a question worth polling.
As for the breakouts, I hope the poll results as published won’t match multiple pieces of information such that it’s possible to identify individual delegates (e.g. “delegates from Alabama who’ve been party members for more than 20 years and don’t vote in elections favored candidate X”).
William Saturn Post author | May 13, 2020
I don’t think anyone would doubt he’s most likely to be the nominee. I’m interested in whether supporters of other candidates would vote for him as the nominee.
John L Robinson May 13, 2020
This poll seems a trifle biased in favor of Justin Amash.
Dan May 13, 2020
There is definitely some concern as to bias being that you “picked” the LP nominee for Question 9..
William Saturn Post author | May 13, 2020
If there’s concerns about anonymity I won’t show results of delegates by state.
William Saturn Post author | May 13, 2020
No planned date to finish. There’s been a healthy response thus far. Four years ago I kept it up for 3 days.
William Saturn Post author | May 13, 2020
Sorry Sam. The error has been corrected.
paulie May 13, 2020
Well let’s see.
* Alabama
* Not registered to vote
* Visit often and comment often
* LP member for over 20 years
* Did not vote in 2016
* LP national 2020 delegate
* Won’t vote in any government election in 2020
Is there someone else likely to match that description? I am pretty sure the answer is no.
Sam Robb May 13, 2020
Folks – while I absolutely appreciate being included in your poll, I would appreciate if you’d correct my name. It’s “Sam Robb”. One ‘m’, two ‘b’s.
Thomas Knapp May 13, 2020
Positively identify? Or plausibly/tentatively identify?
State party, delegate v. alternate, how long you’ve been in the party does narrow it down quite a bit. But maybe there’s another delegate from Alabama who’s been in the party for as long as you have and who reads IPR 😀
paulie May 13, 2020
There are enough questions in there to positively identify at least some of the responders. I’m sure my answers outside of candidate preference are highly unlikely to apply to anyone else who would take the poll.
Thomas Knapp May 13, 2020
Is there a specific end date (or intended IPR reportage date) on this poll?

Comments are closed.