A recent article from NBC News suggests that the 2024 election cycle could be a promising year for third parties and independents, potentially posing challenges for both the Republican and Democratic parties.
A recent article by Alex Seitz-Wald for NBC News reads that 2024 will likely see third parties further complicate an “already muddied picture” of a politically divided America and that the sheer number of candidates on the ballot has left some insiders unable to predict what lies ahead.
The article examines various key factors that could contribute to such a year. These factors include widespread dissatisfaction with Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump and the increasing interest in other candidates as a result, how both the Republican and Democratic Parties are already making efforts to use third party and independent candidates as political tools against each other, and the general wildcard factor frequently associated with the presence of anti-establishment candidates, among other things.
The article notably mentions the Green Party, Libertarian Party, and No Labels, as well as independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Dr. Cornel West, although some topics are discussed more frequently than others.
Kennedy, in particular, is cited as an example of a candidate initially exploited by one party against the other and whose support base later shifted as a result of his changing party affiliation. Initially, Republicans supported Kennedy during his Democratic primary run against Biden. However, this dynamic changed when he became an independent, garnering more support from Republicans. As a result, Trump and the Republican National Committee began publicly criticizing him by implying that he’s still a Democrat taking advantage of an independent moniker.
Seitz-Wald also explores claims made by the Trump campaign that suggest Biden and the Democrats have more to be concerned about when it comes to third party and independent candidates than Republicans. This assertion later finds support from an anonymous Democratic strategist who believes that the Democratic Party is underestimating the “risk” of centrist organizations like No Labels, and the only way to respond to them is to “forcefully and strongly push back.”
The article also considers Trump’s more committed floor of support versus Biden’s higher but more vulnerable ceiling.
Additionally, the article draws a parallel between the political climate for Democrats in 2024 and the one they faced in the 1948 presidential election when conservative and liberal Democrats broke away from the Democratic Party and Harry Truman, represented by Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace, respectively.
Readers of Independent Political Report can read the full article by Alex Seitz-Wald on the NBC News website.
I thought I said this part earlier. Evidently not. Supposing no l*bels does nominate, they will likely do better than all 2020 third parties combined as well. That would not change my other predictions .
The only caveat is if they later attempt to shut it down, withdraw and remove themselves from ballots. In that case, their final numbers are unpredictable, but my expectation is they would most likely not succeed at getting themselves removed everywhere and would still do relatively well for a third party.
They will nominate if they think their spring polls show they have a realistic chance of winning. The problem is that spring polls are likely to be fools gold. If they then finish ballot access by summer and realise they no longer have a realistic chance and their net effect is opposite of their intention , which is very likely in that scenario, they will scramble to be taken off the ballot, not have their vote counted etc.
The success of that is hard to predict but will probably not be uniform across jurisdictions and may have a lot to do with timing, which is also very hard to predict.
My top guess is they will not nominate
Second most likely they do, then find in the fall that as the Democrats feared they are in fact helping Trump and aforementioned scramble.
Multi relatively strong candidates field helps Trump. See Republican primaries in 2016 and primary polls so far this round for illustration . Trump has the strongest dedicated following, so Kennedy and potentially No Labels most likely to help him. Biden leans a lot more on unifying the anti Trump vote. But the anti Trump vote will have other significantly more well financed and media covered options in 2024 and 2020.
There are significant other differences with 2020 that don’t have anything to do with third parties and independents. I can discuss those somewhere else if anyone wants to . They are not in Biden’s favor.
I’ll bet against any and all parts of that. Kennedy alone will do better than all third parties in 2020 combined. I’m betting no labels most likely won’t nominate, but there’s still a fair chance they will.
Cornell west gets media, but at this point I’m not convinced he has any clue about ballot access, organization, or stability to get much leverage or actual votes. Stein knows what she’s doing and will probably get something in the range of her 2016 numbers or better. L.p. And cp will not do well this time. My personal prediction is worst l.p. Ballot Access and percentage since 1984, or at minimum 2008.
Trump will easily beat Biden. I’ll bet $$$-$$$$ on it. I can explain why later maybe but probably not here.
Presidential approval positively tracks things like the stock market and inversely gasoline prices or the unemployment rate, if it gets high enough. Biden’s approval rating should start to tick higher when people get their next quarterly 401k statements.
The thing most likely to drive 3rd party votes in 2024 is Trump in prison. Short of that, or the country being in a recession, Biden is likely going to win and 3rd party and independent candidates in general will do worse than 2020.