PPP has been polling the presidential race, and others, in various states over the previous weeks and has finally arrived at Montana. In Montana they polled the Presidential, Senate, and House race–and included the Libertarian Party candidate in each.
When Gary Johnson is included in the poll he gets 6% with Romney leading Obama 50-40. That’s consistent with our general finding that Johnson doesn’t pull too disproportionately from either Obama or Romney and is thus unlikely to play a spoiler effect in the contest.
The good news for Democrats is that even as Obama’s standing has deteriorated in the last month, Jon Tester’s has remained unchanged. Last month we found him leading Denny Rehberg 45-43 with Libertarian Dan Cox at 8% and this month we find the exact same numbers for all three candidates.
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Republicans have the advantage in Montana’s open House race. Steve Daines is at 43% to 34% for Kim Gillan and 10% for Dave Kaiser. Both candidates continue to be pretty unknown to the voters, with only 50% name recognition, so the numbers at this point are kind of a generic ballot and Gillan could gain as people become more familiar with her in the final month.”
Johnson scores 6%, Cox scores 8%, and Kaiser scores 10%.
Matt Cholko: “What’s the ballot access situation in Montana? Do good results in these races do anything for us?”
The basic rule is that at least one statewide candidate must get at least 5 % to ensure ballot access without petitioning next election. I’d say we’ve got it in the bag in Montana. Mike Fellows is running as LP candidate for Clerk of the State Supreme Court in a 2-way race against the Democrat incumbent. I myself am running for Secretary of State as a Libertarian, and we have several other Libertarians in statewide races.
In 2008, Ron Paul got 2.17% of the vote in Montana with VP Michael Peroutka under the Constitution Party of Montana ticket. They achieved it with doing no campaigning. Gary Johnson should do many campaign appearances in the s0-called Mountain states because they are the most open to libertarians.
I don’t have it on hand, but google “PPP Polls” and “Montana”, it’ll come up.
Joe, links to several good polls you can use here:
http://delawarelibertarian.blogspot.com/2012/10/gary-johnson-not-fading-in-polls-could.html
https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/10/virginia-ppp-poll-johnson-4-goode-1-stein-less-than-0-5/
https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/10/susquehanna-polling-and-research-barack-obama-leads-mitt-romney-in-pa-by-2-points-47-45-with-3-voting-for-libertarian-candidate-gary-johnson/ – see post for links to other related articles
https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/10/cnn-ohio-poll-obama-is-at-48-romney-45-with-johnson-at-3-stein-at-1-and-goode-registering-less-than-one-half-of-one-percent/
https://independentpoliticalreport.com/2012/10/libertarian-party-hq-republicans-running-boiler-rooms-to-kill-libertarian-vote/
Trent — do you have a link to the source for this? I’d like to send it out in our next newsletter to all our endorsed candidates.
Joe
What’s the ballot access situation in Montana? Do good results in these races do anything for us?
“Scoring” is misspelled in the headline.
Great results for the Libertarians. Lets keep up our efforts.