Recent polling has Ron Paul gaining ground in the GOP primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire. However, this poll produced some interesting results, too, with Ron Paul and Michael Bloomberg both serving as a third party candidate in three-way polling.
In a hypothetical three-way match up, Obama gets 44 percent, Romney gets 32 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul gets 18 percent. In another three-way contest, it’s Obama at 44 percent, Romney 35 percent and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 13 percent.
But the president’s lead is narrower against a generic Republican in a two-way contest, with 45 percent saying they would “probably vote” for Obama, and 42 percent saying they would “probably vote” for the eventual GOP candidate.
With Ron Paul polling 18% in a hypothetical run, the question is how would he run–as an independent, a Libertarian, or some new party?
“He also knows that it’s ballot access is an asset. He can be virtually certain that he’d get the LP nomination, would be my guess”
Anyway it’s my understanding that Americans Elect isn’t a party or PAC, but a 501(c) organization, and can’t spend money on getting a candidate on the ballot.
If Paul is polling at 18% in a three way race, that means he is eligible for the general election debates. Those poll numbers can go up if he participates and is seen as a credible candidate. Then you could say that Mitt Romney would be stealing votes from Paul, and not the other way around.
@0
Unfortunately, the poll is a bit of a crock, in that it compares third parties with the Republicans running the one candidate who is unacceptable to 3/4 of their voters.
Obama — Republican conservative moron of the moment — third party would be more convincing as telling us anything.
And, lest I be misunderstood, you give the $30,000 to a petitioning firm, not to the Secretary of State, and the firm collects your signatures.
@16
Notwithstanding @16’s rantings, Libertarians in Massachusetts have ballot access right now, more easily than Democrats or Republicans do. You need the same number of signatures that any other candidate does, and any MA registered voter can sign your nominating papers, as opposed to D R and G-R candidates, who can only collect from their own members and independents.
The Globe is being accurate about ballot access in Massachusetts.
As the Boston Globe correctly recognizes, the way you get candidates on the ballot in Massachusetts is to collect signatures on their nominating papers, during a cycle that currently runs from February to August of the election year depending on the office. AE will appear in Massachusetts next spring, drop $30,000 or so on one of the local petitioning forms and get their Presidential, Vice Presidential, and (it’s a freebie) US Senate candidates on the ballot.
If your political party gets enough registered voters to get major party status, you are now screwed. Massachusetts does not have nomination by convention. The only way you can be nominated is to collect signatures, and if you manage to register 40,000 people in your party, you have just dropped your signer pool by about 2/3.
So this morning Fox recognized the emergence of Ron Paul as Gretchen tried to bait Donald Trump into slamming RP. Trump didn’t take the bait.
Ron Paul is currently leading as the most tracked at Americans Elect.
http://www.americanselect.org/candidates
If I am a strategist for the DNC, I want Romney to get the nomination and I want Ron Paul to run as an independent or third party.
The utility of the split votes will be greather than the differentials of the straight Dem/Repub scheme.
Democrat victory.
15 gp, yes, so let’s say AE gets 49 states and the LP gets 45. Securing the nomination on AE might be, say, 20%. On the LP line, 95%. I’d suggest LP seems the stronger bet.
Note that Rockwell — whom I assume is still tight with RP — has floated the LP as vehicle more than once. Alex Jones has as well. Rockwell esp. is not one to hold back pooh-pooh-ing what he considers a bad, “evil,” ideas. There’s been none of that that I’ve seen.
My read of the tea leaves is the idea is simmering on the back burner. AE is not, given its connections to the “globalists.” Further back is the Constitution Party, which might be a better match in some ways. However, they don’t have the ballot status critical mass.
My swag on odds of “Revolution continues to November on the LP line” is maybe 20%. Paul/Johnson is maybe 3%.
For Paul, it will be a function mostly of how he’s feeling in the spring. Energized? Dissed? Does he want to cause BHO to be re-elected, and would he cause that?
Despite your many concerns, consider that Paul might have the financial firepower to maybe get a few more states to get ballot access, possibly through the courts. He might get in the debates. He might actually win the Iowa R caucuses, which would buy him massive cred. He might even be able to win a few electoral votes, especially if he targets some small pop states.
Things get even MORE interesting if AE fields someone like Huntsman or Bloomberg. A 4-way race would signal to the nation: The “2 party” system is over. Vote your conscience.
Downsides: the media puts NewsletterGate passages up there night after night, especially Fox. (The rest have huge biases to put forward RP as a means to get BHO re-elected.) Paul 2012 does nothing for the LP in terms of membership building, keeping the lists to retire campaign debt. (Less of an issue than in 1988. With the Internet, recruiting should be a heckuva lot easier after an historic race.)
@16 – based on this article http://www.ballot-access.org/2011/11/14/boston-globe-article-misrepresents-ballot-access-law-of-massachusetts-and-other-states/
AE did not meet the November 11, 2011 deadline for getting 40,000 registered members.
@GP – in which States do you think AE will have ballot access that the LP will not?
At least it is likely Americans Elect will have better ballot access than the Libertarian Party in Massachusetts.
It appears to me that AE will probably have better ballot access than the Libertarian Party is likely to have.
7 dw: Ron Paul understands the poison that is brand “Libertarian Party”.
me: The brand has some issues, but Paul is stuck with it. He’s very often introduced by the media as the “libertarian” Congressman from TX. Paul doesn’t disclaim the label.
I s’pose it’s possible that IF he wanted to take the Revolution all the way to November, he might consider the AE vehicle. But he knows the LP, warts and all. He also knows that it’s ballot access is an asset. He can be virtually certain that he’d get the LP nomination, would be my guess.
Wilson: “I could see Paul as the V-P nominee so that the Tea party people stay involved. It might be a Romney/Paul ticket.”
Um, not a chance in hell. Candidates for President pick running mates who’ll talk about how good they’d be as President. I guarantee Paul doesn’t think Romney would be a good President and wouldn’t pretend otherwise. Paul has strongly and publicly criticized both Democratic and Republican Presidents when they’ve violated the Constitution. You think Romney would ever want a VP like that? Or that Paul as VP would suddenly be silent all of those times? Get real.
@10 Paul’s son, Senator Paul, has boasted of avoiding the libertarian tag his opponents tried to hand on him.
What do you mean by “No other candidate running would run as a third party”
The Greens, Libertarians, and Constitutionals all have other candidates.
I could see Paul as the V-P nominee so that the Tea party people stay involved. It might be a Romney/Paul ticket.
Desperation makes a person do unconventional things. Ron Paul has stated that this is the last run for office he will make. It is doubtful that he could hurt his son to the point wherein he ruined his career. Kentucky is not Texas. Unless the Republican party nominee is even close to Ron Paul’s ideas, Paul running would take away a percentage of vote that could impact the utility of a three way race.
No other candidate running would run as a third party, so in this game, only Ron Paul could alter the utility of this tangent.
Ron Paul could take just enough off the Republican percentage to allow for a Democrat victory. Any strategist would make this clear to his/her candidate or party.
Who would benefit most from a Ron Paul third party run?
I agree with 7 and 8.
Given Paul’s 2008 endorsement, not to mention his actual stands as opposed to the delusions of some of his supporters, running with the Constitution Party makes much more sense for Paul. However, he would have to act fairly soon to handle ballot access issues.
Nope. Ron Paul understands the poison that is brand “Libertarian Party”.
If (big if) RP runs as a third party candidate, it will only be because his followers got him into the finals (six candidates) for the AE nomination. That scenario is similar to a draft (no, not sports or military), and will result in a tough decision for RP, but a decision that will be influenced by how loudly his supporters are calling for him to agree to accept the AE nomination if he wins the runoff.
“Americans Elect is how. Come on folks. Read. I expect more informative postings than this.”
What makes you think he’ll run that way? Had Paul hinted at this? Written about it? Do you know someone who knows someone? Im sorry, but it’s infinitely more likely that Paul would run Libertarian Party.
Bloomberg isn’t listed on the Americans Elect website under “Public Figures”
On page 5 in alphabetic order
Diane Black
Marsha Blackburn
Earl Blumenauer
Richard Blumenthal
Roy Blunt
John Boehner
Jo Bonner
Mary Bono
John Boozman
Dan Boren
According to Fox this morning, Ron Paul isn’t even polling in the top four in Iowa. According to Fox. Fair and Balanced. You tell them, Gretchen.
Bloomberg – card carrying member of the Council On Foreign Relations
Obama and Romney – Controlled by the Council On Foreign Relations
IMO – Americans Elect is nothing more or less than a front to splinter and eliminate ANY credible Third Party effort that would END the Kleptocracy rule.
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Ron Paul at 18%, hey it might be time to breakout the checkbook and the yard signs – bumper sticker……
(Indie or new party too expen$ive, LP the BEST way to fly)
Carpe Diem
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You have a better chance of being struck by lightning than being harmed by a terrorist – Michael Bloomberg
Americans Elect is how. Come on folks. Read. I expect more informative postings than this.
How could anyone support Michael Bloomberg?