Following is a communication from the RJ Harris 2012 campaign:
November 2, 2011
With your help and support we are the definite front runner for the 2012 Libertarian Presidential Nomination. We continue to ask for your support in getting the word out. Recently, we won the Illinois Libertarian Convention Straw Poll. We have also been winning over massive support across the country along with Libertarian State Leadership.
Just in case the image with the recent poll up above did not get to you here are the results:
2012 LIbertarian Presidential Poll (October 31, 2011)
Carl Person 2%
Roger Gary 7%
RJ Harris 32%
Lee Wrights 14%
Bill Still 2%
Polling Consisted of 240 Likely Delegates +-4% Error
The release does not say who conducted the poll, but the graphic on Harris’ website indicates that a firm called Polipolls conducted the survey. I am unfamiliar with this polling firm, but this Facebook page indicates that Polipolls has been used by at least one other Libertarian campaign in the past.
I e-mailed the Harris campaign with some followup questions concerning the methodology of the poll. I’ll post any response I receive as an update on this story.
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[Update 2] I’ve heard back from the Harris campaign. They’ve declined to reveal more about the methodology of the poll (a common response for political campaigns, and not unexpected), but note that “the small percentage of error coincides with the subjects being a large percentage of the total pool.” Fair enough. Thanks to the Harris campaign for getting back to me.
Also, Tom Knapp, who was polled, reveals in comments that the poll was a robocall. Robopolling is a cheap and effective option for small campaigns; studies of outcomes since the 2004 election have shown no substantial differences in the accuracy of robopolling and in-person interviews.