Paul Gottfried, a prominent and ridiculously prolific paleoconservative, (search his name at Amazon and see what I mean) encourages Ron Paul to run third party in his latest essay. The essay addresses Romney, Santorum and Paul. Below is the relevant part about a Paul third party run:
The only way Ron Paul can have any clout at the national level is through a third-party challenge. He has no reason to imagine that the GOP will make room for him or his son. A better way to shake up things than by living with an empty hope is to seize the spoiler’s role. Make it hard on the GOP establishment to go on ignoring the real small-government conservatives. But this is only possible if Ron Paul acts boldly, by causing the GOP to lose disastrously in November.
Gottfried seems to accept at face value the idea of a Romney Paul primary alliance, but I know others have disputed that any such alliance is in place.
Things are emotional right now regarding Ron Paul but in the end he has pretty much achieved nothing. As I said before never in the field of political endeavor have so many paid so much for so little.
I would expect many states to challenge his name on the ballot. I don’t think this is over yet!
Even though the RNC has perpertrated Blatant Elections Fraud to declare Romney as their BOY Ron Paul is a very real threat and there are also still alot of things going on behind the scene that can pull Romney out of the race!!!
Ron Paul Can win….Had Ross Perot not shied away from the horrible death threats against him and his family he would have won by a landslide over both Parties….Ron Paul has the heart beat of America and ROmney is just another New World Order Bilderberg…I do not believe Romney has any intention on winning hence Obama being over heard speaking to the Russion when he thought his mic was turned off saying “As soon as I win the election”!…
@ATBAFT, Cholko about convention timing
Agreed
For Ron Paul right now, it’s most likely all about Rand Paul.
Either Rand Paul as a presidential candidate in 2016 and/or 2020 and beyond, or even maybe Rand Paul as the VP candidate in 2012.
It’s possible that Ron Paul will have enough delegates to make that deal with Romney if no one has an outright majority.
I don’t think the convention will pick someone other than the candidates who have delegates, but if that becomes a possibility, Ron/Rand Paul could conceivably make such a deal with them.
Well, now that Ron Paul was shut out on Super Tuesday what does everyone think? His people are still hoping for a brokered convention but I am not sure what that will get them. It will be interesting to see how he plays this one out.
ATBAFT – “[Another detriment to the LP campaign is not having a settled nomination early enough in the election year to put together the machinery to run and fund a decent campaign. Our conventions are much too late in the year.]”
Me – Yup!
Five Members of Romney Family Endorse Ron Paul for President – http://www.ronpaul.com/2012-03-05/five-members-of-romney-family-endorse-ron-paul-for-president-three-to-speak-at-idaho-caucus-sites/
It’s time for Ron Paul to enter the LP race. It’s time for the Ron Paul followers to help fund LP ballot access efforts! If you are maxed out on contributions to Dr. Paul you can still help the LP with their national ballot access drive ! Every dollar matters in this fight for LIBERTY! Go to http://www.lp.org/contribute and help today! Dr. Paul running as a L can reach out to the Indies, Ds and Rs and most important can keep the message going all the way to the FINALS in Nov. !
Ron Paul – “The one who can beat Obama” – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pChzOaIeyxY&feature=endscreen&NR=1
Ron Paul 2012 – Can you Hear us Now? – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=384JykXEjC4
Paul/Johnson 2012 RESTORE AMERICA NOW
25 A, it seems you are missing the point. Virtually no one thinks Barr did a good job of reaching out to RP and his supporters as the L nominee.
RP AS the L nominee with GJ as the veep would add heft to the ticket in ways that might bring and KEEP the Paulistas in the LP fold in future years. There may be someone else as the veep candidate who might do that even better (Ventura?), but it’s a very, very short list.
You seem to have such contempt for GJ that I could imagine you taking the position that GJ on the ticket with RP would HURT RP with his supporters. Man, oh, man, if so, I’d say that’s profoundly unlikely.
Andy, Bob Barr and Gary Johnson aren’t the same guy. From where I sat, it looked like Barr was so controversial there was little grassroots campaign behind him, and his team blew it on the national level. How does GJ’s team look?
Will the grassroots get behind GJ? Maybe, maybe not. But the chance to build some momentum is much greater than if one of the other candidates wins the nomination.
[Another detriment to the LP campaign is not having a settled nomination early enough in the election year to put together the machinery to run and fund a decent campaign. Our conventions are much too late in the year.]
“is GJ and not some ‘pure’ Mr. nobody
that cannot sustain the momentum.”
A lot of people said the same thing in 2008 about Bob Barr, and Bob Barr failed miserably when it came to sustaining the momentum for liberty that Ron Paul created.
The LP ticket won’t win in 2012 no matter who is on it. But, purely as symbolism, I’d rather have a RP and GJ ticket than RP and Mr.nobody. Some voters, when RP’s age is brought up, would be more mollified if a qualified GJ was next in line instead of Mr.nobody. Looking to the future, GJ could more easily inherit the RP supporters in future years than could Mr. nobody. Media coverage of the veep’s appearance in support of local LP candidates would be superior if said veep were GJ and not Mr. nobody. So, should RP decide to seek the LP nomination, the best choice for running mate – for now and for our future interest – is GJ and not some “pure” Mr. nobody
that cannot sustain the momentum.
p: Johnson in the VP debate is very unlikely to register with enough people to make any real difference.
me: Perhaps. I’d say Stockdale hurt the Perot final vote. I’d say GJ is no Stockdale.
Correct.
Ron Paul had to hire people to do his Republican ballot access (which is a lot easier than what the CP has to do) in both 2008 and 2012, despite his popularity, and it was a clusterfuck both times – especially in 2012.
If Paul does bolt, LP is by far the most logical chance, and if it weren’t for Rand Paul’s future chances, I’d think it would be fairly likely.
I agree that Johnson as VP (or not) would not make much difference.
Johnson in the VP debate is very unlikely to register with enough people to make any real difference.
At this moment, RP bolting for the LP would have far greater upside for the LP than GJ, despite NewsletterGate. NewsletterGate is a ceiling for RP, whereas GJ has no inherent ceilings, however.
Should Santorum or even Gingrich get the GOP nod, either RP or GJ would have huge upside. The likelihood of AE mounting a serious candidate/campaign goes way up if Romney doesn’t get the GOP nod.
GJ could narrow the theoretical upside gap between him and RP if he takes his game to another level. Right now, he’s not all that electric on TV or the stump. But I’d say he has potential, with proper coaching. He’s fine now, but electric…not so much.
At this moment, I’d say RP as LP nominee has an upside of — best case — 10% if he can get in the debates, and the chances of that might also be, say, 15%…not great, but possible. Without the debates but with a fervent core of supporters, his upside is maybe 5%.
GJ as nominee upside might be 7% with debate inclusion, 3% without.
GJ as RP’s vp probably adds to RP’s upside ONLY if the ticket gets on the debates. GJ could hold his own vs. Biden and the R VP nom. Otherwise, without being in the debates, RP’s running mate would not matter much UNLESS is was someone with a lot of Benjies….
Not warranted, just a gut sense…
A Paul/Johnson ticket could put up Perot like numbers (8-12%).
A Paul/Fill in the Blank ticket could put up Perot like numbers (8-12%).
Paul could get the same numbers regardless of who runs on his coattails.
Yes the masses don’t understand Ballot Access is a BITCH ! Ron Paul’s grassroots could help the CP gain a lot of Ballot Access, but WHY waste the money !?
The SMART move is to run LP ! A Paul/Johnson ticket could put up Perot like numbers (8-12%). Johnson is quailified but he is having trouble raising money and fans. Paul can get both and, unless he runs LP, it basicly ends Tuesday. He receives little if any positive national media and it dries up for real after Tuesday. Ron Paul needs his name on the Ballot in Nov. to take advantage of his and his supporters past efforts !
Sixty Million dollars is a terrible thing to waste. So this guy has a good point. The LP brand would gain from a Ron Paul run. A $60M headstart assures it!
Someone tell Paul to CARPE DIEM………
Ron Paul Ad – Plan – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIAVKUqeuQw
There’s no law that says the VP has to “toe the line.”
The LP can run Johnson, but I doubt that Johnson would pull even 1% in November.
I agree.
Johnson- 0.5%
Paul- 3.2%
with neither helping with expansion or branding of LP.
The numbers sound about right, but I think Paul would help at least somewhat.
Johnson, probably not much if at all.
As much as I like Ron Paul, it’s time for him to back Gary as Gary has done for him.
My bet is against that happening. Johnson has the backing of the Cato/Reason crowd, and there is a long standing animosity between them and the Rockwell-Paul people.
Assuming Ron Paul does not run himself, look for him to most likely say that Virgil Goode, Gary Johnson and perhaps Jill Stein all deserve support. If Johnson makes the mistake of pressing for Paul’s endorsement the way Barr did, it will most likely go to the Constitution Party candidate.
Why not a Gary Johnson/Rand Paul ticket? That would be a truly strong Libertarian ticket.
Ain’t gonna happen. Rand Paul wants to run GOP in 2016. If he will be anyone’s VP it will be Romney’s, although that’s not likely either.
What about GARY JOHNSON?!?!?!? He’s already at 9% and can get to the required 15% by August.
He’s already down to 7% and will keep dropping.
His poll numbers are not out of line with other LP candidates this early on, and will never ever get anywhere near 15%, especially in September as an average of several polls.
Johnson- 0.5%
Paul- 3.2%
with neither helping with expansion or branding of LP.
What about GARY JOHNSON?!?!?!?
Unlike Ron Paul, nobody even knows who Gary Johnson is. A handful of third party geeks and a few people in New Mexico. That’s about it.
(Don’t assume most state residents — of any state — even know who their governor is.)
Johnson does not have a wide base of passionate supporters.
He doesn’t even have a small base of passionate supporters.
The LP can run Johnson, but I doubt that Johnson would pull even 1% in November.
I can’t see Rand Paul leaving the GOP while he is a sitting U. S. Senator. If he wants to run for Vice President he might have a shot at the Republican nomination. He might actually get elected that way. I’m okay with Gary Johnson but he would need a good counterweight from a philosophical perspective for his running mate. I lived in New Mexico while he was governor and he was great. The LP just doesn’t need a ticket made up of former (or current) Republican office holders. Just my $.02 as a former member of the LP.
What about GARY JOHNSON?!?!?!? He’s already at 9% and can get to the required 15% by August. As much as I like Ron Paul, it’s time for him to back Gary as Gary has done for him. Why not a Gary Johnson/Rand Paul ticket? That would be a truly strong Libertarian ticket.
I agree with you, Andy. In the unlikely event that he shows up and wins the nomination it would be very nice for a “radical” to be his running mate. It really would be nice to see just how well the LP could do if the party was united and put forth a really strong effort during a time of economic distress (to say the least) and unpopular wars.
“The only way Ron Paul can have any clout at the national level is through a third-party challenge.”
I agree, and I really hope that Ron Paul shows up at the Libertarian Party’s National Convention in Las Vegas, NV during the 1st week of may and declares himself to be a candidate for the party’s Presidential nomination. He’d win it in a landslide on the first ballot. Then the Libertarian Party would finally move up to the big time (I don’t think that he’d win, but he could get a Ross Perot like vote total and really shake things up).
Rand may be an outside possibility.
Not that he would toe the line, but he would expand the ticket’s appeal.
Ron Paul, no chance.
BTW there is no alliance.
Paul’s latest TV ad skewers Romney right along with Gingrich and Santorum.
“I am not sure why he believes a Romney-(Rand) Paul ticket has even been discussed.”
That is the speculation that has been going around as to why there might be a Romney-Paul alliance. I think it is very unlikely. There is no way Ron Paul is the VP choice because he is not the kind of guy who would toe the Romney line. I doubt Rand could toe the line either.
Probably so. Most people I talk to assume that ballot access is automatic or very easy.
They also have no idea how hard it is to get signatures.
For example when I told someone today that we need 8,000 signatures they said “you should be able to get most of those today.” I had to laugh to myself at that one.
I would not be surprised if he doesn’t really know the difference.
Given that LP and AE are the only ones likely to have anything like full ballot access, I would rule the other choices out off the bat.
Running on more than one line, in most states, would make it much harder to get in a position to get electoral votes, and would thus be highly inadvisable even if the parties permit it.
Given who all is on the AE board, I don’t think Ron Paul will be allowed to get their nomination even if he decides he wants it. Even if I am wrong about this, they would want him to pick a nominee of another party, probably a Democrat, to be deemed in compliance with the rules – and the rules can be, and have been, changed repeatedly.
The LP would be a much more logical choice.
Ron Paul has already run LP, remains a life member of the party, is frequently called a libertarian, sometimes calls himself one, could have the nomination easily even with little or no notice, and could probably get any concessions he wants to have it.
That’s if he goes alt party, which I still see as unlikely, although not impossible.
I tend to disagree. For the long run, it’ll be better to bide.
Does this Gottfried guy publish his every thought no matter how lame?
I think he underestimates what is involved.
Man, that guy wrote six major books on political theory in the past decade. Way to make me feel inadequate as a scholar! *sulks in corner
It would be nice if this person would be more specific about a “third party run”. Americans Elect? Libertarian Party? Constitution Party? All three? Perhaps just as an independent? I am not sure why he believes a Romney-(Rand) Paul ticket has even been discussed. All that said… I agree with him that especially after Super Tuesday Ron Paul (barring some fantastic upsets) needs to start looking at November options.