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Alaska House Poll: Two Republicans, Two Independents (and one Santa) Likely to Advance to General Election

Alaska Survey Research released a poll of 605 likely special election voters in Alaska’s upcoming U.S. House race to replace the recently deceased Don Young. The top 4 finishers in the first round of voting will advance to the general election, where ranked choice voting will determine a winner.

Barring a major shakeup in the race, the top 3 spots appear to be locked down for Republicans Sarah Palin (19%), Nick Begich (16%) and independent Al Gross (13%). In the battle for fourth place, North Pole city councilman Santa Claus (seriously) is holding a tenuous lead, polling at 6%. Another 8 candidates (including Republicans, Democrats and independents with serious political experience in state government) are all polling somewhere between 2% and 5%, which theoretically puts them all within the poll’s 4% margin of error.

The polling firm then sampled a variety of Top 4 scenarios, all of which lead to the elimination of both Sarah Palin and whoever finishes fourth in the early round. In a one-on-one battle between Republican Nick Begich and independent Al Gross, Begich holds a significant but not insurmountable lead.

Interestingly, of the various possible fourth place finishers, Santa Claus performs the strongest in the general election…

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Austin Cassidy


  1. Sammy H Sammy H May 17, 2022

    Santa Claus would fit right in in Washington these days.

  2. Jeff Davidson Jeff Davidson May 16, 2022

    As an overweight older guy with white hair and a beard, I feel like I have a favorite in this contest…

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