Alaska Survey Research released a poll of 605 likely special election voters in Alaska’s upcoming U.S. House race to replace the recently deceased Don Young. The top 4 finishers in the first round of voting will advance to the general election, where ranked choice voting will determine a winner.
Barring a major shakeup in the race, the top 3 spots appear to be locked down for Republicans Sarah Palin (19%), Nick Begich (16%) and independent Al Gross (13%). In the battle for fourth place, North Pole city councilman Santa Claus (seriously) is holding a tenuous lead, polling at 6%. Another 8 candidates (including Republicans, Democrats and independents with serious political experience in state government) are all polling somewhere between 2% and 5%, which theoretically puts them all within the poll’s 4% margin of error.
The polling firm then sampled a variety of Top 4 scenarios, all of which lead to the elimination of both Sarah Palin and whoever finishes fourth in the early round. In a one-on-one battle between Republican Nick Begich and independent Al Gross, Begich holds a significant but not insurmountable lead.
Interestingly, of the various possible fourth place finishers, Santa Claus performs the strongest in the general election…
Santa Claus would fit right in in Washington these days.
As an overweight older guy with white hair and a beard, I feel like I have a favorite in this contest…
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