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Open Thread for CPD Invitation Decision

Whatever happens is expected soon (surely they will give the candidates more than a week’s notice of who they will be debating against), so this is the THREAD for that discussion.  Whatever happens.

No wagering please . . .

About Post Author

Joseph Buchman

Joe is a retired, formerly tenured professor of marketing and finance with a passion for adventure travel, chasing total solar eclipses, and Burning Man. He is a long-time volunteer with the Sundance Film Festival, former Chair of the Utah Libertarian Party, former Chair of the LP Platform Committee, and former Chair and three-term member of the LP's financial Audit Committee. Joe and Cindy have raised four highly successful children, several cats, and yet have generally failed miserably with every houseplant ever gifted to them.

31 Comments

  1. Joseph Buchman Joseph Buchman Post author | September 15, 2016

    I’ll start the wagering. How about markets for:

    THE ANNOUNCEMENT

    1) The CPD announces the debate invitations at or before 5PM Eastern Time, Friday 16 September 2016.

    2) The CPD announces the debate invitations over this coming weekend.

    3) The CPD announces the debate invitations on Monday.

    4) The CPD announces the debate invitations LESS THAN a full week before the first debate.

    THE INVITATIONS

    1) Only the two old old-party candidates.

    2) The two old party plus Libertarian.

    3) The two old party, Libertarian and Green.

    4) The two old party, Libertarian, Green and Constitution.

    THE RULES

    1) The CPD announces a revision of its rules to: 15 percent OR ballot access in every state.

    2) The CPD lowers polling to 10 percent.

    3) The CPD eliminates the polling requirement entirely

    THE RESULTS

    1) Dr. Jill Stein is arrested outside of the CPD offices within 48 hours of the announcement.

    2) Russia Today announces a 5-Party televised debate (and the two old parties decline due to CPD contracts).

    3) Gary Johnson gets an invitation but as a matter of principle refuses the contract requirement NOT to participate in any other debates besides those hosted by the CPD (something the two calcified old party candidates apparently agree to).

    LET THE WAGERING BEGIN!

  2. Tony From Long Island Tony From Long Island September 15, 2016

    If they announce on Friday, Johnson would be in, because that’s the news dump time!

    Absolutely no chance of Castle. You get a demerit just for including him as an option.

    I am going to go with D + R + L and Stein getting arrested AT the debate.

    I can see them revising their rules to having polling numbers AFTER the first POTUS & VP debate. A requirement for 50 states sounds OK, but then states with Republican majorities will start making the ballot access rules ridiculous – yes, I said only Republicans would do this because that’s the kind of crap they do.

  3. Anthony Dlugos Anthony Dlugos September 15, 2016

    I’ll go #2, #1, no rule changes, and the result will be Stein getting arrested for stealing my heart that little vixen.

  4. Joseph Buchman Joseph Buchman Post author | September 15, 2016

    Tony,

    “You get a demerit just for including him as an option.”

    Yea! I was hoping for a demerit. Thought about it, but this IS IPR so . . . I had to.

    Besides, you know the gambling habits of those crazed Constitutional Party folks; we could make some real hard cash here.

  5. Jill Pyeatt Jill Pyeatt September 15, 2016

    I predict Hillary will not debate. There will be some excuse made besides her health, but there’s no way she’ll do it. She has nothing to gain from debating Trump, and a whole lot to lose.

  6. Joseph Buchman Joseph Buchman Post author | September 15, 2016

    “You were intelligent, candid, politically risky, unpredictable, answers all apparently grounded in a consistent philosophy. So what are you doing in this election?”

    September 14th 2016 quote from former Indiana Governor, current President of Purdue University AND member of the Commission on Presidential Debates, Mitch Daniels.

  7. robert capozzi robert capozzi September 15, 2016

    jp, what she would lose would be credibility. Not debating would look like she’s afraid of Trump. That makes her look weak and hiding something.

    Can she power through that? Possibly, only because DJT is the weakest major party candidate possibly ever.

  8. JamesT JamesT September 15, 2016

    I hope they invite Stein and Johnson. Also by the time it happens I wouldn’t put it past the DNC to have replaced Hillary with Biden.

    Also, as always its sad to see “big tent” “pragmatist” libertarians hate on the CP when they have more in common with them than the Ds or Rs. But hey why why build coalitions with like minded people for common goals?

  9. robert capozzi robert capozzi September 15, 2016

    I’m thinking if HRC drops out, it’s Kaine next up. Someone like Booker might be the new vp.

  10. Steve Kerbel Steve Kerbel September 15, 2016

    They will have to invite Johnson. It will be a 3 way debate, but no telling if the Donald will show up. If they do not invite him, there will be pandemonium across the nation. They know this. If they retain a 2 way contest, there will be a national boycott. ( Except the kool aid drinkers over 50 that think Trump and Clinton are actually DIFFERENT!) The advertisers will benefit from Johnson’s inclusion.. and money talks.

  11. William Saturn William Saturn September 15, 2016

    “If they do not invite him, there will be pandemonium across the nation.”

    Based on what?

    “Except the kool aid drinkers over 50 that think Trump and Clinton are actually DIFFERENT!”

    What about the kool-aid drinkers who think Johnson is actually different?

  12. Krzysztof Lesiak Krzysztof Lesiak September 15, 2016

    William is exactly on point.

    I predict 3% in November. Johnson’s (apparently) die-hard supporters are going to be extremely underwhelmed.

  13. William Saturn William Saturn September 15, 2016

    “DJT is the weakest major party candidate possibly ever”

    Depends on your perspective. If you believe only a select few, i.e. those deified with the much-coveted “government experience” can be president, then you would take such a view.

    If you read Scott Adams’ blog and really grasp what is going on with the Trump campaign, you would see that the campaign is actually quite strong, experience notwithstanding.

    What I believe you’re actually saying is that DJT has the least government experience of any major party candidate, possibly ever. You’d be mostly correct though you’d be forgetting Wendell Willkie, someone with no government or military experience, who, in 1940, was the Republican nominee for president.

  14. Krzysztof Lesiak Krzysztof Lesiak September 15, 2016

    Warren could very well have the best estimate – 2%. If JWeld can’t even beat Nader 2000- maybe the LP will learn to be the “Party of Principle” again and nominate candidates like Ron Paul and Michael Badnarik again.

    No one is looking at previous third party results, everyone thinks this election will be different. Third parties will do better than usual, but not THAT much better.

  15. William Saturn William Saturn September 15, 2016

    If you look at the polling data from the last cycle, Johnson has about half of his current support. He received 1% in the general election then. Therefore, 2% is a good estimate.

  16. langa langa September 15, 2016

    No one is looking at previous third party results, everyone thinks this election will be different. Third parties will do better than usual, but not THAT much better.

    Agreed. I see Johnson getting somewhere between 2% and 3%. If the over/under were 2.5, I’d probably take the under.

  17. Anthony Dlugos Anthony Dlugos September 15, 2016

    I’ll take “over 3%” and bet any of you on it.

    Don’t know why’d we go back to Badnarik (0.32%), or Ron Paul (0.47%), though. Makes little sense.

  18. langa langa September 15, 2016

    Don’t know why’d we go back to Badnarik (0.32%), or Ron Paul (0.47%), though. Makes little sense.

    It depends on the goal. As I’ve said many times, if the only goal is to maximize votes, we should have begged Ted Cruz or Bernie Sanders to be our candidate. Either of them is as “libertarian” as Bill Weld.

  19. Joseph Buchman Joseph Buchman Post author | September 15, 2016

    While the Johnson Campaign Website is still reporting a CPD five polling company average of 10 percent (CBS 12; NBC 11; CNN 9; ABC 9; and FOX 9), the latest numbers by those five companies currently average 8.6 percent (NBC 11; ABC 9; CBS 8; FOX 8; and CNN 7).

  20. robert capozzi robert capozzi September 15, 2016

    ws: What I believe you’re actually saying is that DJT has the least government experience of any major party candidate, possibly ever.

    me: First, thanks for the Wilkie correction. Might have been a case where no one wanted to run vs. FDR.

    But, no, I personally like that DJT has no elective experience. If he had well thought out positions, we could overlook his lack of experience. However, the guy puts out one howler after the next. One dangerous dude, in my estimation.

  21. Tony From Long Island Tony From Long Island September 16, 2016

    JIll Said ” . . . . . I predict Hillary will not debate. There will be some excuse made besides her health, but there’s no way she’ll do it. She has nothing to gain from debating Trump, and a whole lot to lose. . . .

    If there’s anyone who won’t debate, it’s Trump. He has no substance and can’t hide behind 9 other candidates. Hillary may not be likable, but she knows policy like the back of her hand. She is counting on the debates to finish the deal.

    Your posts are usually pretty well-thought-out, but I don’t know how you could even come to this conclusion. There’s no evidence Hillary has ever ducked a debate. Meanwhile, Trump skipped one.

  22. Be Rational Be Rational September 16, 2016

    At this point the CPD knows that they should invite Johnson and that they WILL face a serious backlash by a portion of the media if they don’t. Johnson will receive his highest level of media coverage yet if he’s excluded. They are looking for a way to invite Johnson, exclude Stein, protect their rules – tweaking them or “bending” them without admitting to any change, save face, and not look like they caved in.

    Trump and Clinton will both show up if Johnson is invited. To skip the debate would be to conceed the election.

    Johnson’s polling numbers show that he’s still in this race. His late start with TV advertising hurt him, the money wasted on radio was a shame, but his multi-state push for rallies and appearances have helped. The campaing raised enough money and could have made 20% by now with a targeted TV advertising plan.

    Being in the debates would still mean anything could happen. Even if excluded and his money dries up, and barring another acronym type problem, at worst he’ll finish above 4%.

  23. Be Rational Be Rational September 16, 2016

    concede

  24. Dave Dave September 16, 2016

    CPD has announced neither Johnson or Stein will be invited.

  25. Dave Dave September 16, 2016

    http://www.debates.org/index.php?mact=News,cntnt01,detail,0&cntnt01articleid=65&cntnt01origid=27&cntnt01detailtemplate=newspage&cntnt01returnid=80

    “With the assistance of Dr. Newport, the Board determined that the polling averages called for in the third criterion are as follows: Hillary Clinton (43%), Donald Trump (40.4%), Gary Johnson (8.4%) and Jill Stein (3.2%). Accordingly, Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Tim Kaine, and Donald Trump and his running mate, Mike Pence, qualify to participate in the September 26 presidential debate and the October 4 vice-presidential debate, respectively. No other candidates satisfied the criteria for inclusion in the September 26 and October 4 debates. “

  26. Just Some Random Guy Just Some Random Guy September 16, 2016

    I do remember in 2012, a letter-writing campaign complaining about exclusions convinced some of the sponsors/advertisers during the debate to pull out of it and not fund it. While the debates went on, that was still a small blow, and it could be bigger this year with more people wanting Johnson (and possibly Stein) in it. Does anyone know of any effort for that this year? I would be interested in trying to help but I don’t know who to actually try to complain to.

  27. Thomas Knapp Thomas Knapp September 16, 2016

    “DJT is the weakest major party candidate possibly ever”

    I guess it depends on what you mean by “weak.” If you mean in terms of getting votes, not even close — he will do considerably better than Walter Mondale, among others, even if he loses. And I expect him to win.

  28. Anthony Dlugos Anthony Dlugos September 16, 2016

    No reason to panic.

    Two hours of the worst the duopoly has to offer.

  29. Thomas Knapp Thomas Knapp September 16, 2016

    I agree with Anthony. Between the debate including the worst the duopoly has to offer and excluding the worst the LP has to offer, it’s HUGE plus.

  30. Robert Capozzi Robert Capozzi September 16, 2016

    TK, by weak I mean unprepared and unsuitable to be prez. Mondale was not those, but he was up against a very popular president.

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