Comparing Qualified Party Status for Libertarian, Green and Constitution Parties, Relative to Four Years Ago

Ballot Access News reports:

Libertarian Party: compared to the day after the November 2014 election, has gained qualified status in D.C., Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Oklahoma. Compared to November 2014, it has lost status in Alaska, Maryland, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. In Alaska, it only got 1.84% for Governor, and 3% was required. In Maryland, it only got .57% for Governor, and 1% was required. In North Dakota it didn’t have any statewide candidates on the ballot. UPDATE: it appears the Ohio Libertarian Party is still ballot-qualified, even though it did not receive as much as 3% for Governor in November 2018. The law says when a party petitions, it remains on the ballot until the first election that is at least a year later than the date the petition was approved.

Subsequently, Ballot Access News also clarified that the party is now on the ballot in South Dakota as well, contrary to what Richard Winger believed when analyzing results immediately after the election. The post-election November 2014 status is in the December 2014 Ballot Access News. Based on this and subsequent email discussions the states which the LP will need to petition or add voter registration to be on the next presidential ballot in are:

AK (several hundred voter regs will be needed), AL, AR, IA, IL, OH – maybe, maybe not; informally it has been reported that SOS will not side with us but Richard Winger believes we have a good legal case, MD – may be won thru a lawsuit, ME – may be won thru a lawsuit, MN, ND, NH, NJ, RI, PA, TN, VA, WA and WI. CT ballot access is on a race by race basis and presidential ballot access was retained by the last presidential ticket.

The improvement in the number of signatures needed is more dramatic than the number of states, because two of the hardest states (OK and NY) have LP ballot access retention for the first time and the number of signatures in PA has been substantially reduced. The most difficult state remaining using the easiest method to get presidential ballot access for the LP is Illinois with 25,000 valid signatures, with the next most difficult numbers being 10,000 valid signatures each in Arkansas and Maryland.

Ballot Access News continues:

Green Party: compared to the day after the November 2014 election, has gained qualified status in Missouri and North Carolina. Compared to the same day in 2014, it has lost qualified status in Arizona, Ohio, Texas, and Wisconsin (although the party was not on in Arizona for the 2014 election, it had already submitted its party petition as of election day 2014).

While I haven’t analyzed what this means in terms of 2020 presidential ballot access signatures in as much detail as the LP, my best estimate at this time is that the Greens will need more signatures than they needed in 2016 to achieve equal or better ballot access, primarily because Texas – thanks to higher turnout in 2018 – will now need over 83,000 valid signatures to qualify for the ballot.

Constitution party: compared to the day after the November 2014 election, has gained qualified status in North Carolina, and did not lose it anywhere. This post originally erroneously said that the party lost qualified status in New Mexico.

This means that the Constitution Party obviously has a better starting position for 2020 presidential access than it did in 2016, although it’s still substantially behind the Libertarians and Greens.

Additional IPR note: The party logos are outdated, but I did not want to spend too much time on the logos. If someone would like to create an image with the current logos I will update the article image to reflect that.

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