According to insiders within the Gravel campaign, Steve Kubby agreed to endorse Mike Gravel in the event he was eliminated prior to the former senator. However, when Kubby was eliminated, he instead supported Mary Ruwart.
“He put friendship over principles,” said the Gravel-insider informant. Although most observers would disagree with the notion that Kubby and Gravel were closer on the issues than Kubby and Ruwart.
Further speculation is that this snub by Kubby was another motivating factor in Gravel releasing his delegates to Root, instead of endorsing Ruwart.
As Gravel’s Manhattan Campaign Manager, I’d like to point out that Kubby did not “stab Gravel in the backâ€. Kubby always told Gravel that he was leaning towards Mary Ruwart, but Kubby did say he liked Gravel’s National Initiative, and said that he may think about endorsing Gravel, though it was highly unlikely. We tried to get that Kubby endorsement since day one of the convention, but alas, he endorsed Ruwart. But Kubby never made a deal with Gravel regarding an endorsement. Kubby is a decent man, and his calls to unify the party and support Barr was noble. I am now Barr’s Manhattan Coordinator, because I love the party.
Now *that* is an interesting scenario, and really is the only way I could see this thing turning out any different.
BUT, speaking as someone who supported Gravel myself, I suspect that even if he had endorsed Root, most of delegates probably wouldn’t have followed him. *He* might have been more comfortable with the slick pol over the radical, but I think most of his supporters already held him with kid gloves as it was — supporting him less for his own merits and more for being the closest thing to a left-libertarian available — and would have gone their own way to Ruwart.
But of course we can what-if all day long.
Trent – Your scenario is what we were really worried about. We knew some Root supporters would come to us (not a majority, by any means, but SOME), but if Root dropped Barr to third, then virtually all of the Barr votes would have gone to Root.
In retrospect, I WISH that would have happened. Then we would have had Root/Kubby, I almost guarantee. A much better ticket.
Well I’m not arguing against that. The results of an utterly different hypothetical race are an entirely different matter.
As iv said before,though, Barr was weakest after the 4th ballot.
Barr: 202
Ruwart: 202
Root: 149
Gravel: 76
NOTA: 2
With Gravel dropping–it left only Barr, Ruwart, and Root. Had Gravel formally endorsed Root (whom he voted for) and pushed his delegates to do the same–then its possible the next ballot would’ve been Ruwart and Root.
2nd Ballot
Barr: 188
Ruwart: 162
Root: 138
Gravel: 71
Phillies: 36
Kubby: 32
NOTA: 1
=627 total.
Barr and Root=326
326/627 = 52%.
However–that doesnt prove Nueral’s point. I know that the part of Texas’ delegation that was backing Root most likely would’ve switched any radical EXCEPT Ruwart.
If so, then my mistake. Sorry for confusion.
You know, now that you mention it, I do think you’re right, Austin and neural.
We were hoping for virtually 100% of the non-Root voters, plus a small fraction of the Root voters, to give us 50.01%.
I think Barr and Root combined did have a bit over 50% by the end of the second ballot. About 325 delegates between them.
I could be wrong, gotta go back and check the numbers I guess.
neural – Not true. Barr/Root did not have 50%+ after two ballots. If they did, then I must have been temporarily blinded because I sure didn’t see it.
Which, don’t get me wrong, I’m not happy about.. just sayin’, spilt milk and all. Seems like even if Gravel & Phillies could have used Jedi mind tricks to make sure every one of their delegates went with Mary, you still would have had to pull 30 some votes *away* from Barr & Root. Possible? Maybe. Probable? I’m guessing not.
But I’m sure in one respect you’re right — there probably weren’t 326 “conservatives” on the Barr/Root side. The real traitors are the ones Knapp might call the “cargo cultists”. Seems to me there were just enough conservatives to coalition with them to do the damage.
Umm, I’m pretty sure 326 beats 303, which is how Barr + Root stacks against Ruwart + Gravel + Phillies + Kubby on the second ballot.
neural – You are right that once THAT point was reached, it was essentially over… But the conservatives did not have 50%. Only with the help of the statist wing (Gravel, Phillies, Jingozian) were the conservatives able to defeat the radicals. People thought the “statists” would opposed the conservatives. That was definitely the general sense.
Steve – I’m only reporting what I heard from the Gravel campaign. I don’t believe it, and their logic is way off. They are so warped they think Gravel and Kubby were closer on the issues than Mary and Kubby. Again, this was a REPORT from the Gravel campaign and their perceptions, not mine.
It’s a little silly getting into all these supposed conspiracy plots among the other candidates. This thing was over after the second ballot, when Barr (188) + Root (138) equaled 326, almost exactly what Barr ended up with at the end.
*Nothing* that Ruwart, Gravel, Phillies, Kubby, or Jingozian did or didn’t do would or could have changed the math at that point, and the rest of the day was just playing out the inevitable.
I’d be amazed if Kubby ever made such a “deal” since his campaign was basically in the hands of of folks who also backed Mary, and they were longstanding friends and colleagues. (Had BOTH of them chosen to approach Gravel, as the most likely NON-GOPist contender, and been able to pool their resources and votes a little sooner in the process … who knows? Maybe in some alt universe …)
First, I’d look to see who already is running…I don’t live either in Mendocino county (which I think is Kubby’s county of residence) or San Francisco, where you propose to support a Sheehan run.
Fact is, if I did vote there, I’d rather support any currently running Libertarian candidate, and NOT any interlopers, no matter who they are.
It is distinctly NOT supportive of the LP for someone to run against an LP candidate.
Also, there is the stubbornly reasonable attitude of most voters towards someone who always is running…ENOUGH ALREADY!
One of the lamest things any Libertarian can do is to persistently, stupidly, file to run for office, after office, after office. Simply put, voters do not like that, don’t respect it, consider it a joke…and it IS a joke. It makes the LP look bad and it presents the LP as home to a few, a very few people with a large percentage of crackpots.
I’m not suggesting that is true, but it is true that some Libertarians make the LP appear as such (I’m referring to the LP candidates who always are running a “campaign” consisting mainly in filing candidate papers and little else).
Finally, running for congress can be a waste of effort…and in Kubby’s case, almost certainly would be…he got almost no votes when he ran for Governor…what would a last minute run for congress accomplish?
It comes down to this…DO NOT RUN if all you are going to do is file…if your campaign is not serious don’t run…very simple, and it’s something LPers need to enforce…you enforce it by NOT supporting the twits who continually are filing to “run” what in reality is a non-existent campaign.
Postitively, you DO SUPPORT those who are actually trying to reach voters with the message of liberty…you’ll know who they are in your area because their campaigns will be the ones which contact you, the voter.
He could run for the US House as an independent, but he’d need several thousand sigs.
Speaking of independents in California. Now that the LP kerfuffle is settled, how abt a little coverage of Cindy Sheehan’s attempt to get on the ballot as an indie in SF, CA against Pelosi?
And no where I have I read the answer to a very interesting question for her. Why an indie, and not via the Greens or the Peace and Freedom Party — either of whose nominations she could have easily won?
And whether you are left or right, you have to like someone going after Pelosi. I don’t live anywhere near SF, but I still sent Sheehan $25.
And I know her campaign is now involved in sig gathering. A little news would be interesting. Yes, I know BAN has had some mentions of Sheehan, but no one is doing any reportage — can I sztill use that word in reference to blogging?!
It’s too late to file to run for congress as a Libertarian in California.
Kubby should run for congress.
You would be in a better position than I to know the details, G.E., but I was pretty sure that Kubby had a pre-existing pact with Ruwart to be her V.P. should the race go her way. Kubby was far closer to Ruwart ideologically than Gravel, I can’t believe that too many Gravel backers would be surprised that Kubby folks went that way.
The Phillies call for unity and low-rancor, rather than a anybody-but-Barr pitch, was the bigger surprise to me. I don’t think it had much effect on Phillies’ base (the Massachusetts delegation mostly walked out after that), but it did kinda open the door for many others to say, “Alright, it’s OKAY to vote for Barr in the end.”
A man who smokes upwards of ten joints a day can’t be expected to remember an agreement, much less keep it. SHAME on Gravel and compamy for not realizing this. I like Kubby but the dude is STONED most of the time and shouldn’t be expected to keep any such agreement. Rerun the coverage on C-Span Steve was a “happy” dude whenever you see him, just having “FUN”.
They all need to get over it, Jingo’s 20+, Gravel’s 70+ and Kubby’s 40+ votes can’t add up to victory anyway you add it!
Been surfing TV cable news this morning for two hours, MSNBC has had 15 seconds and CNN 10 seconds . C-Span is starting a 30 min. interview. that their 100,000 viewers will see. We’ll see how much “positive” MSM coverage he gets now…