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Analysis: A Breakdown of Jill Stein’s Results in California

At the time of this writing, at least 861,141 votes nationwide have gone to Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein. While her 2016 tally is larger, she earned more than twice the number of votes 2020 nominee Howie Hawkins received and exceeded the outcome of her campaign in 2012 as well. Out of all Green Party presidential tickets, and according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) reports, her 2024 total ranks only behind those of her 2016 campaign and of Ralph Nader’s 2000 run. When examining her results, her performance in California is of interest.

As the FEC tabulations prove, California has always accounted for the greatest number of raw votes for Green presidential candidates due to its sizable voting population. Greens have historically experienced other substantial showings and victories in the state, such as city council majorities, a near-win in the 2003 San Francisco mayoral race, and the election of a Green to the State Assembly in 1999. In the most recent cycle, California represented another high point.

In addition to 17 confirmed Greens winning non-partisan seats in public office across the Golden State in 2024, Stein obtained her biggest share of the vote in terms of raw numbers there (167,814) and her third-highest percentage (1.06%), after Maryland and Maine. In correlation with her national showing, she did not exceed her 2016 count in California (278,657). Yet Hawkins won fewer votes in 2020 (81,029), and she drew less than this year’s total in 2012 (85,638). Overall, she came in fourth in the state, though Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who polled third, terminated his independent campaign, albeit late enough that Californians were able to vote for him. Stein’s outcome by county also reveals progress – and deficits – from previous cycles.

Stein lost ground from 2016 in every one of the counties in the state, and she underperformed the last three Green tickets in 11 counties (Amador, Calaveras, Del Norte, Kings, Lake, Lassen, Modoc, Shasta, Sierra, Tehama, Tuolumne). But she surpassed Hawkins’ vote tally in 45 counties and outdid her 2012 run in 35 counties. In 11 counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Orange, Placer, Riverside, Sacramento, San Francisco, San Joaquin, San Mateo, Yolo), she more than doubled Hawkins’ count. In Santa Clara County, she more than tripled it. Juxtaposing her county totals with her 2012 showings, she finished with exactly two times more votes in Kern County in 2024. She came away with more than twice her 2012 share in 11 counties (Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Placer, Sacramento, San Benito, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, Sutter) and more than thrice in three (Orange, Riverside, San Joaquin).

Stein’s 2024 statewide tally is greater than the number of people registered Green in California – 107,929 as of October 21 of this year. However, that figure has increased from these same points in time before the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections. (The California Secretary of State’s office routinely informs the public on where these numbers stand 15 days leading up to an election day.) The Green Party had 84,807 registrants on October 19, 2020, and 94,647 on October 24, 2016. In fact, following the release of July 2020 registration data, the October 21st report was the 18th in a row to establish the party’s expanding membership. The state has not verified a figure higher than the current count since February 10, 2015.

California Greens can now look to the small number of elections presently due to take place in the state in 2025, while far more will transpire in 2026. Meanwhile, on December 17, the Electoral College affirmed Donald Trump’s victory, but Kamala Harris won the popular vote in California and received its 54 electoral votes.

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