The following is a list of third party candidates who polled more than 4% of the vote in a U.S. Senate or Gubernatorial race during the 2008 elections.
Why did I pick 4%? Well, it’s kind of a random number, but it’s my theory that if a candidate gets more than 4% of the vote in a multi-candidate race with a Republican and a Democrat, then that campaign has achieved something significant. It’s also generally outside of the margin of error on most public opinion polls. Getting that level of support is not an easy thing to do and usually signals either a well-run campaign or a unique set of circumstances.
Whatever the case, these are the candidates that should probably consider running again.
U.S. SENATE
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AR – Rebekah Kennedy – Green – 20.6% (2-way race)
MN – Dean Barkley – Independence – 15.16% (likely “spoiler”)
ID – Rex Rammell – Independent – 5.37%
OR – Dave Brownlow – Constitution – 5.2% (likely “spoiler”)
OK – Stephen P. Wallace – Independent – 4.14%
AK – Bob Bird – AK Independence – 4.06% (likely “spoiler”)
GOVERNOR
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VT – Anthony Pollina – Independent – 21.3% (beat Democrat)
WV – Jesse Johnson – Mountain Party – 4.46%
Now let’s compare these showings with candidates who topped 4% in 2006. Note that there were more gubernatorial races on the ballot in 2006 than there were in 2008…
2006 – US SENATE
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VT – Bernard Sanders – Independent – 65.41% (no Democrat)
CT – Joe Lieberman – CT for Lieberman – 49.71% (re-elected)
IN – Steve Osborn – Libertarian – 12.59% (2-way race)
ME – William Slavick – Independent – 5.37%
2006 – GOVERNOR
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ME – Barbara Merrill – Independent – 21.55%
TX – Carole Strayhorn – Independent – 18.13%
TX – Kinky Friedman – Independent – 12.43%
IL – Rich Whitney – Green – 10.36%
ME – Pat LaMarche – Green – 9.56%
AK – Andrew Halcro – Independent – 9.46%
MA – Christy Mihos – Independent – 7.27%
MN – Peter Hutchinson – Independence – 6.43% (possible “spoiler”)
While 2006 was considered a huge year for independents in statewide races, when you take out Sanders and Lieberman… the results aren’t that much better than 2008. And there were significantly more gubernatorial races in 2006, which seem to be where third parties perform better.
paulie – I’d almost posit that 2008 was better because of the spoiler potentials. And since Buckley pulled 3.4, I’d almost be inclined to include him as part of the “good news” as well (which I am sure you do).
2004, or other presidential years might be a better comparison, since more people who don’t vote in off year elections show up, and some of them vote the “straight party” single click/check off box in states which still have that.
I don’t know if he was serious, but my dad said he would have voted for Nader, but didn’t want to take the time to mark all the races separately so he just voted straight Democratic. It works in the other direction, too.